Football · England Championship · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Watford vs Middlesbrough

Team pages: Watford · Middlesbrough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Watford1.16

Middlesbrough2.24

1X2

18% 21% 61%

Watford Draw Middlesbrough

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Watford 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLWLL

Middlesbrough 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWWDWW

Head-to-head

Watford 3–3 Middlesbrough (6 last)

Middlesbrough5-1Watford
Watford3-0Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough0-1Watford
Watford2-1Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough3-1Watford
Watford2-3Middlesbrough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Watford 1422 · Middlesbrough 1574

	Watford	Draw	Middlesbrough
Our model	18%	21%	61%
Market	18%	21%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middlesbrough (rating 1422 vs 1574).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Watford	Middlesbrough
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.4	3.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.33

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +10’	5.25	4.33	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Watford 3–0–3 Middlesbrough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England Championship	Middlesbrough	5-1 HT 2-0	Watford
01/11/25 England Championship	Watford	3-0 HT 2-0	Middlesbrough
15/02/25 England Championship	Middlesbrough	0-1 HT 0-1	Watford
05/10/24 England Championship	Watford	2-1 HT 0-0	Middlesbrough
04/05/24 England Championship	Middlesbrough	3-1 HT 1-0	Watford
30/09/23 England Championship	Watford	2-3 HT 1-2	Middlesbrough

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Watford	Middlesbrough
Norwich	2-3 L	4-3 W
Wolverhampton	0-1 L	1-0 W
Charlton	2-0 W	3-0 W
Cardiff	1-5 L	2-2 D
Burnley	0-4 L	1-1 D
Stoke	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Middlesbrough (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Watford

LLWLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Norwich England Championship	2-0	2-3	2	2	L
24/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
17/10	Charlton England Championship	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
13/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-4	1-5	1	5	L
10/10	Burnley England Championship	0-3	0-4	6	0	L
18/09	Bristol City England Championship	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
12/09	Stoke England Championship	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
08/09	Preston England Championship	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
05/09	West Brom England Championship	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
01/09	Swansea England Championship	0-2	0-2	3	4	L

Middlesbrough

DWWDDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Charlton England Championship	2-0	3-0	8	3	W
23/10	Bolton England Championship	3-1	5-1	12	1	W
17/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-2	2-2	11	3	D
13/10	Stoke England Championship	0-0	3-2	3	2	W
10/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
19/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
15/09	Millwall England Championship	0-2	2-2	14	2	D
12/09	Norwich England Championship	3-1	4-3	3	3	W
05/09	QPR England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/09	Burnley England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Watford vs Middlesbrough?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Middlesbrough win (61%). Probabilities: Watford 18%, draw 21%, Middlesbrough 61%.

How many goals are expected in Watford vs Middlesbrough?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Watford 1.16 · Middlesbrough 2.24), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Watford vs Middlesbrough?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.