Football · England Championship · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Burnley vs Portsmouth

Team pages: Burnley · Portsmouth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Burnley1.65

Portsmouth1.19

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Burnley Draw Portsmouth

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Burnley 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLDWDLL

Portsmouth 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDDLWWDW

Head-to-head

Burnley 1–1–0 Portsmouth (2 last)

Portsmouth0-0Burnley
Burnley2-1Portsmouth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Burnley 1445 · Portsmouth 1511

	Burnley	Draw	Portsmouth
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portsmouth (rating 1445 vs 1511).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Burnley	Portsmouth
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.7 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.05 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.44
2	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.65

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:37 +5’	2.00	3.40	3.40
23:10 +4’	1.95▼	3.40	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:41 +302’	2.05	3.44	3.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Burnley 1–1–0 Portsmouth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/25 England Championship	Portsmouth	0-0 HT 0-0	Burnley
21/09/24 England Championship	Burnley	2-1 HT 0-1	Portsmouth

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	27	17	25
2	Swansea	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
3	West Ham	12	6	4	2	32	15	22
4	Wolverhampton	12	6	3	3	20	16	21
5	West Brom	12	6	3	3	16	13	21
6	Southampton	12	7	3	2	24	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	20	12	20
8	QPR	12	5	5	2	20	12	20
9	Stoke	12	6	2	4	18	16	20
10	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	19	16	18
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	16	15	18
12	Sheff Utd	12	4	4	4	16	15	16
13	Millwall	12	4	3	5	19	20	15
14	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	12	15	15
15	Lincoln City	12	4	3	5	13	20	15
16	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	19	17	14
17	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	15	18	14
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	16	23	14
19	Charlton	12	3	5	4	11	18	14
20	Norwich	12	4	0	8	20	22	12
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	10	20	11
22	Burnley	12	1	5	6	17	25	8
23	Derby	12	1	4	7	10	21	7
24	Preston	12	1	2	9	10	25	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Burnley	Portsmouth
Wolverhampton	1-2 L	1-1 D
Charlton	2-2 D	0-0 D
Derby	1-1 D	0-2 L
Bristol City	1-2 L	1-2 L
Norwich	1-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Portsmouth (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Burnley

LDLDLDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
16/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
13/10	Charlton England Championship	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
10/10	Watford England Championship	3-0	4-0	2	0	W
19/09	Derby England Championship	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Swansea England Championship	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
08/09	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
05/09	Bristol City England Championship	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
02/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
29/08	Norwich England Championship	1-3	1-4	5	8	L

Portsmouth

LLWDDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Millwall England Championship	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
17/10	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
14/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	3-2	10	6	W
11/10	Southampton England Championship	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Blackburn England Championship	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
12/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
01/09	Derby England Championship	0-1	0-2	11	3	L
29/08	Bristol City England Championship	0-1	1-2	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Burnley vs Portsmouth?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Burnley win (47%). Probabilities: Burnley 47%, draw 27%, Portsmouth 26%.

How many goals are expected in Burnley vs Portsmouth?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Burnley 1.65 · Portsmouth 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Burnley vs Portsmouth?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.