Football · England Championship · 31/10, 13:30

Prediction: Lincoln City vs Birmingham

Team pages: Lincoln City · Birmingham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Lincoln City1.15

Birmingham1.54

1X2

27% 27% 45%

Lincoln City Draw Birmingham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lincoln City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLLLDW

Birmingham 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Lincoln City 0–3 Birmingham (3 last)

Birmingham1-0Lincoln City
Birmingham2-1Lincoln City
Lincoln City1-3Birmingham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lincoln City 1490 · Birmingham 1523

	Lincoln City	Draw	Birmingham
Our model	27%	28%	45%
Market	28%	27%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Birmingham: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lincoln City	Birmingham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.9	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.40

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.44
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.48
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.11 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +17’	3.30	3.40	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:14 +442’	3.44	3.48	2.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lincoln City 0–0–3 Birmingham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/25 England League 1	Birmingham	1-0 HT 0-0	Lincoln City
11/01/25 England FA Cup	Birmingham	2-1 HT 1-0	Lincoln City
19/10/24 England League 1	Lincoln City	1-3 HT 1-1	Birmingham

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	27	17	25
2	Swansea	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
3	West Ham	12	6	4	2	32	15	22
4	Wolverhampton	12	6	3	3	20	16	21
5	West Brom	12	6	3	3	16	13	21
6	Southampton	12	7	3	2	24	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	20	12	20
8	QPR	12	5	5	2	20	12	20
9	Stoke	12	6	2	4	18	16	20
10	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	19	16	18
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	16	15	18
12	Sheff Utd	12	4	4	4	16	15	16
13	Millwall	12	4	3	5	19	20	15
14	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	12	15	15
15	Lincoln City	12	4	3	5	13	20	15
16	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	19	17	14
17	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	15	18	14
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	16	23	14
19	Charlton	12	3	5	4	11	18	14
20	Norwich	12	4	0	8	20	22	12
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	10	20	11
22	Burnley	12	1	5	6	17	25	8
23	Derby	12	1	4	7	10	21	7
24	Preston	12	1	2	9	10	25	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lincoln City	Birmingham
Preston	1-0 W	4-0 W
Southampton	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Birmingham (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lincoln City

WDDWWLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Burnley England Championship	1-1	4-1	2	2	W
17/10	Millwall England Championship	2-0	2-2	2	11	D
14/10	West Ham England Championship	0-1	0-6	3	4	L
10/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-1	0-3	2	7	L
19/09	Swansea England Championship	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
15/09	Bristol City England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
12/09	Preston England Championship	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/09	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
01/09	Blackburn England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
29/08	Bolton England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	3	W

Birmingham

WDDLWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
17/10	QPR England Championship	1-0	3-0	0	4	W
13/10	Preston England Championship	3-0	4-0	6	3	W
10/10	West Brom England Championship	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
19/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	2-2	5	2	D
12/09	Derby England Championship	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
09/09	Norwich England Championship	0-2	1-2	7	8	L
06/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	2-2	2-2	8	3	D
01/09	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
28/08	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	2-1	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lincoln City vs Birmingham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Birmingham win (45%). Probabilities: Lincoln City 27%, draw 27%, Birmingham 45%.

How many goals are expected in Lincoln City vs Birmingham?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Lincoln City 1.15 · Birmingham 1.54), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lincoln City vs Birmingham?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.