Football · England Championship · 31/10, 13:30
Prediction: Norwich vs Watford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
Norwich2.07
Watford1.05
1X2
Norwich
Draw
Watford
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Norwich
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Watford
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Norwich
4–2
Watford
(6 last)
- Norwich0-1Watford
- Watford3-2Norwich
- Watford1-2Norwich
- Watford0-1Norwich
- Norwich4-1Watford
- Norwich4-2Watford
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Norwich 1454 · Watford 1450
| Norwich | Draw | Watford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Norwich: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Norwich | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.7 | 0.7 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 0.1 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 0/20/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.2 | 1.2 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Norwich 4–0–2 Watford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/25 England Championship | Norwich | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Watford |
| 06/12/25 England Championship | Watford | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Norwich |
| 12/08/25 England EFL Cup | Watford | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Norwich |
| 01/02/25 England Championship | Watford | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Norwich |
| 21/09/24 England Championship | Norwich | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Watford |
| 13/02/24 England Championship | Norwich | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Watford |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheff Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Norwich | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Swansea | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Stoke | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Burnley | 4-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Norwich (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Norwich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Charlton England Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 14/10 | Southampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Swansea England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Bolton England Championship |
2-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 12/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 05/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Burnley England Championship |
3-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
Watford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 13/10 | Cardiff England Championship |
0-4 | 1-5 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Burnley England Championship |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 18/09 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/09 | Preston England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | West Brom England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 01/09 | Swansea England Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | West Ham England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Norwich vs Watford?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Norwich win (60%). Probabilities: Norwich 60%, draw 23%, Watford 17%.
How many goals are expected in Norwich vs Watford?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Norwich 2.07 · Watford 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Watford?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.