Football · England Championship · 30/10, 21:00

Prediction: Sheff Utd vs Wrexham

Team pages: Sheff Utd · Wrexham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Sheff Utd1.59

Wrexham1.53

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Sheff Utd Draw Wrexham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sheff Utd 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLWLWD

Wrexham 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWDLWL

Head-to-head

Sheff Utd 2–1–2 Wrexham (5 last)

Sheff Utd1-2Wrexham
Wrexham5-3Sheff Utd
Sheff Utd4-2Wrexham
Sheff Utd3-1Wrexham
Wrexham3-3Sheff Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sheff Utd 1472 · Wrexham 1504

	Sheff Utd	Draw	Wrexham
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sheff Utd	Wrexham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.30

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.54
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.36
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.79 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:10 +14’	2.45	3.30	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +188’	2.68	3.36	2.65
08:55 +28’	2.54▼	3.36	2.79▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sheff Utd 2–1–2 Wrexham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England Championship	Sheff Utd	1-2 HT 0-0	Wrexham
26/12/25 England Championship	Wrexham	5-3 HT 2-3	Sheff Utd
13/08/24 England EFL Cup	Sheff Utd	4-2 HT 1-1	Wrexham
07/02/23 England FA Cup	Sheff Utd	3-1 HT 0-0	Wrexham
29/01/23 England FA Cup	Wrexham	3-3 HT 0-1	Sheff Utd

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	27	17	25
2	Swansea	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
3	West Ham	12	6	4	2	32	15	22
4	Wolverhampton	12	6	3	3	20	16	21
5	West Brom	12	6	3	3	16	13	21
6	Southampton	12	7	3	2	24	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	20	12	20
8	QPR	12	5	5	2	20	12	20
9	Stoke	12	6	2	4	18	16	20
10	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	19	16	18
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	16	15	18
12	Sheff Utd	12	4	4	4	16	15	16
13	Millwall	12	4	3	5	19	20	15
14	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	12	15	15
15	Lincoln City	12	4	3	5	13	20	15
16	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	19	17	14
17	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	15	18	14
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	16	23	14
19	Charlton	12	3	5	4	11	18	14
20	Norwich	12	4	0	8	20	22	12
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	10	20	11
22	Burnley	12	1	5	6	17	25	8
23	Derby	12	1	4	7	10	21	7
24	Preston	12	1	2	9	10	25	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sheff Utd	Wrexham
Derby	1-1 D	1-1 D
Blackburn	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sheff Utd (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sheff Utd

DWLWLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Derby England Championship	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
17/10	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
14/10	Portsmouth England Championship	0-1	2-3	6	6	L
10/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
19/09	Stoke England Championship	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
13/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
08/09	Blackburn England Championship	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Norwich England Championship	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
01/09	Bolton England Championship	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
29/08	Cardiff England Championship	2-2	2-2	2	4	D

Wrexham

LWDDLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Blackburn England Championship	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
17/10	Preston England Championship	2-1	4-1	8	6	W
13/10	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	Derby England Championship	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
19/09	Southampton England Championship	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
11/09	West Ham England Championship	0-2	0-6	6	1	L
08/09	Burnley England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
05/09	Swansea England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
02/09	Millwall England Championship	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
28/08	Birmingham England Championship	0-1	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sheff Utd vs Wrexham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sheff Utd win (38%). Probabilities: Sheff Utd 38%, draw 27%, Wrexham 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sheff Utd vs Wrexham?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Sheff Utd 1.59 · Wrexham 1.53), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sheff Utd vs Wrexham?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.