Football · England Championship · 31/10, 13:30
Prediction: Stoke vs Preston
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Stoke1.76
Preston0.98
1X2
Stoke
Draw
Preston
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Stoke
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Preston
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stoke
1–3–2
Preston
(6 last)
- Preston3-1Stoke
- Stoke0-0Preston
- Preston1-1Stoke
- Stoke0-0Preston
- Preston1-2Stoke
- Stoke0-2Preston
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stoke 1531 · Preston 1433
| Stoke | Draw | Preston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stoke (rating 1531 vs 1433).
- H2H favours Preston: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stoke | Preston | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 4.7 | 2.2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stoke 1–3–2 Preston
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 England Championship | Preston | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Stoke |
| 26/12/25 England Championship | Stoke | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Preston |
| 05/04/25 England Championship | Preston | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Stoke |
| 26/11/24 England Championship | Stoke | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Preston |
| 09/03/24 England Championship | Preston | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Stoke |
| 02/09/23 England Championship | Stoke | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Preston |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheff Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 22 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stoke | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Watford | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Charlton | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Stoke (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/10 | Derby England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 13/10 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Bolton England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 12/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 08/09 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Charlton England Championship |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Norwich England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
Preston
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | West Brom England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 17/10 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 13/10 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Millwall England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | QPR England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 16 | 2 | L |
| 08/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/09 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stoke vs Preston?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stoke win (55%). Probabilities: Stoke 55%, draw 25%, Preston 20%.
How many goals are expected in Stoke vs Preston?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Stoke 1.76 · Preston 0.98), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Stoke vs Preston?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.