Football · England Championship · 03/11, 21:00
Prediction: Birmingham vs Millwall
Team pages: Birmingham · Millwall
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Birmingham1.71
Millwall1.17
1X2
Birmingham
Draw
Millwall
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Birmingham
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Millwall
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Birmingham
2–2–2
Millwall
(6 last)
- Millwall3-0Birmingham
- Birmingham4-0Millwall
- Millwall1-0Birmingham
- Birmingham1-1Millwall
- Millwall0-1Birmingham
- Birmingham0-0Millwall
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Birmingham 1555 · Millwall 1475
| Birmingham | Draw | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham (rating 1555 vs 1475).
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birmingham | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.8 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham 2–2–2 Millwall
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/26 England Championship | Millwall | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Birmingham |
| 04/11/25 England Championship | Birmingham | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Millwall |
| 09/03/24 England Championship | Millwall | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Birmingham |
| 02/09/23 England Championship | Birmingham | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Millwall |
| 18/04/23 England Championship | Millwall | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Birmingham |
| 02/11/22 England Championship | Birmingham | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Millwall |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 13 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 23 |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 18 | 22 |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Sheff Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 18 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 18 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 24 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 23 | 15 |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 14 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 14 |
| 20 | Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 27 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Birmingham | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Preston | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Middlesbrough | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Derby | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Birmingham (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birmingham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Lincoln City England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Cardiff England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 17/10 | QPR England Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 13/10 | Preston England Championship |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | West Brom England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Derby England Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Norwich England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Southampton England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Millwall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Derby England Championship |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-2 | 2-2 | 12 | 11 | D |
| 13/10 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Preston England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | West Ham England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 15/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 05/09 | Bolton England Championship |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birmingham vs Millwall?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Birmingham win (49%). Probabilities: Birmingham 49%, draw 26%, Millwall 25%.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham vs Millwall?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Birmingham 1.71 · Millwall 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Millwall?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.