Football · England Championship · 03/11, 20:45
Prediction: Blackburn vs Stoke
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.53Total
Blackburn1.26
Stoke1.26
1X2
Blackburn
Draw
Stoke
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Blackburn
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Stoke
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Blackburn
2–2–2
Stoke
(6 last)
- Stoke1-1Blackburn
- Blackburn1-1Stoke
- Stoke1-0Blackburn
- Blackburn0-2Stoke
- Blackburn3-1Stoke
- Stoke0-3Blackburn
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Blackburn 1501 · Stoke 1545
| Blackburn | Draw | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stoke (rating 1501 vs 1545).
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Blackburn | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.7 | 3.4 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Blackburn 2–2–2 Stoke
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 England Championship | Stoke | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Blackburn |
| 04/10/25 England Championship | Blackburn | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Stoke |
| 12/03/25 England Championship | Stoke | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Blackburn |
| 06/11/24 England Championship | Blackburn | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Stoke |
| 10/02/24 England Championship | Blackburn | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Stoke |
| 25/11/23 England Championship | Stoke | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Blackburn |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 13 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 23 |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 18 | 22 |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Sheff Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 18 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 18 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 24 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 23 | 15 |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 14 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 14 |
| 20 | Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 27 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Blackburn | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Cardiff | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Sheff Utd | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Preston | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blackburn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Swansea England Championship |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 24/10 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | West Brom England Championship |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/10 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 10/10 | Cardiff England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Millwall England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 08/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Preston England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 01/09 | Lincoln City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
Stoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Preston England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 24/10 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/10 | Derby England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 13/10 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Bolton England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 12/09 | Watford England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 08/09 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Charlton England Championship |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Norwich England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Blackburn vs Stoke?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Blackburn win (35%). Probabilities: Blackburn 35%, draw 29%, Stoke 35%.
How many goals are expected in Blackburn vs Stoke?
The model expects 2.53 goals (Blackburn 1.26 · Stoke 1.26), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Stoke?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.