Football · England Championship · 03/11, 20:45
Prediction: Derby vs Norwich
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.08Total
Derby1.35
Norwich1.73
1X2
Derby
Draw
Norwich
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Derby
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Norwich
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derby
2–1–3
Norwich
(6 last)
- Norwich2-1Derby
- Derby1-0Norwich
- Norwich1-1Derby
- Derby2-3Norwich
- Derby0-1Norwich
- Norwich0-1Derby
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derby 1430 · Norwich 1487
| Derby | Draw | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Norwich (rating 1430 vs 1487).
- H2H favours Norwich: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derby | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5.7 | 1.7 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby 2–1–3 Norwich
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/26 England Championship | Norwich | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Derby |
| 21/10/25 England Championship | Derby | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Norwich |
| 08/02/25 England Championship | Norwich | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Derby |
| 28/09/24 England Championship | Derby | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Norwich |
| 10/04/21 England Championship | Derby | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Norwich |
| 03/10/20 England Championship | Norwich | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Derby |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 13 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 23 |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 18 | 22 |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Sheff Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 18 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 18 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 24 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 23 | 15 |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 14 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 14 |
| 20 | Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 27 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Derby | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Stoke | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Birmingham | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Portsmouth | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Norwich (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Millwall England Championship |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 24/10 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 17/10 | Stoke England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 14/10 | QPR England Championship |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Burnley England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 09/09 | West Brom England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | West Ham England Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Norwich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Watford England Championship |
0-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | Charlton England Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 14/10 | Southampton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Swansea England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Bolton England Championship |
2-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 12/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/09 | Birmingham England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 05/09 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derby vs Norwich?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Norwich win (45%). Probabilities: Derby 29%, draw 26%, Norwich 45%.
How many goals are expected in Derby vs Norwich?
The model expects 3.08 goals (Derby 1.35 · Norwich 1.73), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Norwich?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.