Football · England Championship · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Portsmouth vs Swansea

Team pages: Portsmouth · Swansea

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Portsmouth1.14

Swansea1.15

1X2

35% 30% 35%

Portsmouth Draw Swansea

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Portsmouth 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWDWD

Swansea 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Portsmouth 1–1–2 Swansea (4 last)

Portsmouth1-2Swansea
Swansea1-0Portsmouth
Portsmouth4-0Swansea
Swansea2-2Portsmouth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portsmouth 1516 · Swansea 1536

	Portsmouth	Draw	Swansea
Our model	34%	31%	35%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Swansea: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portsmouth	Swansea
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.30

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 15:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.63▼	Pinn 2.71 ★
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.37
2	2.50 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.63

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:15 +23’	2.70	3.25	2.50
02:14 +8’	2.63▼	3.30▲	2.60▲
04:25 +52’	2.60▼	3.30	2.63▲
06:14 +4’	2.65▲	3.34▲	2.77▲
07:13 +11’	2.60▼	3.30▼	2.63▼
15:07 +7’	2.63▲	3.30	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:07 +31’	2.51	3.34	2.86
22:22 +7’	2.66▲	3.35▲	2.69▼
04:16 +60’	2.59▼	3.37▲	2.75▲
12:47 +5’	2.71▲	3.37	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portsmouth 1–1–2 Swansea

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 England Championship	Portsmouth	1-2 HT 0-2	Swansea
09/12/25 England Championship	Swansea	1-0 HT 0-0	Portsmouth
01/01/25 England Championship	Portsmouth	4-0 HT 2-0	Swansea
30/11/24 England Championship	Swansea	2-2 HT 1-2	Portsmouth

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portsmouth	Swansea
Burnley	0-0 D	3-1 W
Millwall	2-1 W	1-0 W
Norwich	1-0 W	2-1 W
Southampton	0-1 L	1-3 L
Blackburn	2-2 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Swansea (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portsmouth

LWDDLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Burnley England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
24/10	Millwall England Championship	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
17/10	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
14/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	3-2	10	6	W
11/10	Southampton England Championship	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Blackburn England Championship	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
12/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
01/09	Derby England Championship	0-1	0-2	11	3	L

Swansea

WDLWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Blackburn England Championship	3-0	4-0	1	1	W
24/10	QPR England Championship	0-4	0-5	8	5	L
17/10	West Ham England Championship	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
13/10	Millwall England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
10/10	Norwich England Championship	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
19/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-1	2-1	0	3	W
12/09	Burnley England Championship	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
08/09	Southampton England Championship	0-2	1-3	3	1	L
05/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
01/09	Watford England Championship	2-0	2-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portsmouth vs Swansea?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portsmouth win (35%). Probabilities: Portsmouth 35%, draw 30%, Swansea 35%.

How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Swansea?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Portsmouth 1.14 · Swansea 1.15), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Swansea?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.