Football · England Championship · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: QPR vs Burnley

Team pages: QPR · Burnley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

QPR1.71

Burnley1.34

1X2

45% 26% 29%

QPR Draw Burnley

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

QPR 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDDDWLWL

Burnley 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLDWDLLD

Head-to-head

QPR 1–2–3 Burnley (6 last)

QPR0-5Burnley
Burnley0-0QPR
Burnley1-2QPR
QPR0-3Burnley
Burnley1-0QPR
QPR0-0Burnley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · QPR 1505 · Burnley 1451

	QPR	Draw	Burnley
Our model	45%	26%	29%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours QPR (rating 1505 vs 1451).
H2H favours Burnley: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	QPR	Burnley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.78 ★
2	3.20 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.51

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +4’	2.05	3.50	3.20
02:20 +2’	2.10▲	3.50	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:07 +31’	1.91	3.87	3.75
22:20 +9’	2.00▲	3.78▼	3.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · QPR 1–2–3 Burnley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/25 England Championship	QPR	0-5 HT 0-3	Burnley
26/10/24 England Championship	Burnley	0-0 HT 0-0	QPR
22/04/23 England Championship	Burnley	1-2 HT 0-0	QPR
11/12/22 England Championship	QPR	0-3 HT 0-2	Burnley
02/05/16 England Championship	Burnley	1-0 HT 0-0	QPR
12/12/15 England Championship	QPR	0-0 HT 0-0	Burnley

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	QPR	Burnley
Swansea	5-0 W	1-3 L
Derby	4-1 W	1-1 D
Charlton	0-0 D	2-2 D
Middlesbrough	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: QPR (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

QPR

WLDDDDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
24/10	Swansea England Championship	4-0	5-0	6	5	W
17/10	Birmingham England Championship	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
14/10	Derby England Championship	3-0	4-1	1	5	W
09/10	West Ham England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
19/09	Preston England Championship	0-2	2-2	10	6	D
12/09	West Brom England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
09/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	12	2	D
05/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
02/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	2-1	3	2	W

Burnley

DLDLDWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Portsmouth England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
24/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
16/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
13/10	Charlton England Championship	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
10/10	Watford England Championship	3-0	4-0	2	0	W
19/09	Derby England Championship	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Swansea England Championship	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
08/09	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
05/09	Bristol City England Championship	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
02/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in QPR vs Burnley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a QPR win (45%). Probabilities: QPR 45%, draw 26%, Burnley 29%.

How many goals are expected in QPR vs Burnley?

The model expects 3.05 goals (QPR 1.71 · Burnley 1.34), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in QPR vs Burnley?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.