Football · England Championship · 03/11, 21:00

Prediction: West Brom vs Southampton

Team pages: West Brom · Southampton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

West Brom1.34

Southampton1.34

1X2

36% 28% 36%

West Brom Draw Southampton

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

West Brom 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLWWDW

Southampton 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWWDWW

Head-to-head

West Brom 0–2–4 Southampton (6 last)

West Brom1-1Southampton
Southampton3-2West Brom
Southampton3-1West Brom
West Brom0-0Southampton
West Brom0-2Southampton
Southampton2-1West Brom

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · West Brom 1524 · Southampton 1589

	West Brom	Draw	Southampton
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1524 vs 1589).
H2H favours Southampton: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	West Brom	Southampton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.5	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.60▲	Bet365 2.60
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.59
2	2.50 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.77 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +6’	2.50	3.50	2.50
02:19 +3’	2.60▲	3.40▼	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:32 +8’	2.44	3.65	2.76
09:31 +59’	2.45▲	3.59▼	2.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · West Brom 0–2–4 Southampton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/26 England Championship	West Brom	1-1 HT 1-0	Southampton
09/12/25 England Championship	Southampton	3-2 HT 3-0	West Brom
17/05/24 England Championship	Southampton	3-1 HT 0-0	West Brom
12/05/24 England Championship	West Brom	0-0 HT 0-0	Southampton
16/02/24 England Championship	West Brom	0-2 HT 0-1	Southampton
11/11/23 England Championship	Southampton	2-1 HT 1-0	West Brom

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	West Brom	Southampton
West Ham	3-1 W	3-2 W
Wrexham	2-1 W	1-2 L
Birmingham	0-1 L	1-1 D
QPR	1-1 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

West Brom

DWWDLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	West Ham England Championship	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
24/10	Preston England Championship	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
17/10	Blackburn England Championship	1-2	3-2	8	5	W
13/10	Wrexham England Championship	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
10/10	Birmingham England Championship	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
20/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
12/09	QPR England Championship	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
09/09	Derby England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
05/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
02/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	1-1	8	2	D

Southampton

DDWWLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	QPR England Championship	1-0	4-1	9	3	W
24/10	West Ham England Championship	3-1	3-2	6	3	W
17/10	Bolton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
14/10	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/10	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
19/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
12/09	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	4-1	2	2	W
08/09	Swansea England Championship	2-0	3-1	9	1	W
05/09	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
01/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in West Brom vs Southampton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a West Brom win (36%). Probabilities: West Brom 36%, draw 28%, Southampton 36%.

How many goals are expected in West Brom vs Southampton?

The model expects 2.69 goals (West Brom 1.34 · Southampton 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in West Brom vs Southampton?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.