Football · England Championship · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Charlton vs Bolton

Team pages: Charlton · Bolton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Charlton1.65

Bolton1.39

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Charlton Draw Bolton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlton 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLDDLDDLLL

Bolton 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

Charlton 2–1–3 Bolton (6 last)

Bolton1-2Charlton
Charlton2-0Bolton
Bolton3-3Charlton
Charlton0-2Bolton
Charlton1-2Bolton
Bolton3-1Charlton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlton 1427 · Bolton 1464

	Charlton	Draw	Bolton
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bolton: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlton	Bolton
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.9	1.6 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.26
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.59 ★
2	2.88 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +4’	2.25	3.40	2.88
02:19 +3’	2.25	3.40	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:04 +34’	2.26	3.59	3.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlton 2–1–3 Bolton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/01/25 England League 1	Bolton	1-2 HT 0-0	Charlton
24/08/24 England League 1	Charlton	2-0 HT 1-0	Bolton
17/02/24 England League 1	Bolton	3-3 HT 1-2	Charlton
28/10/23 England League 1	Charlton	0-2 HT 0-2	Bolton
28/01/23 England League 1	Charlton	1-2 HT 0-1	Bolton
03/09/22 England League 1	Bolton	3-1 HT 3-1	Charlton

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlton	Bolton
Middlesbrough	0-3 L	1-5 L
Norwich	1-3 L	4-3 W
Bristol City	1-1 D	2-3 L
Cardiff	1-3 L	1-0 W
Stoke	0-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bolton (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlton

DLDDLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
24/10	Norwich England Championship	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
17/10	Watford England Championship	0-0	0-2	3	8	L
13/10	Burnley England Championship	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
10/10	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
19/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-2	1-3	1	8	L
12/09	Portsmouth England Championship	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
09/09	QPR England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Stoke England Championship	0-4	0-4	3	5	L
02/09	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-1	3	2	D

Bolton

LLLWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	2-3	11	2	L
23/10	Middlesbrough England Championship	1-3	1-5	2	1	L
17/10	Southampton England Championship	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
13/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
10/10	Stoke England Championship	0-1	1-2	10	3	L
20/09	Norwich England Championship	2-2	4-3	2	0	W
12/09	Cardiff England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
08/09	West Ham England Championship	2-2	2-3	4	2	L
05/09	Millwall England Championship	0-1	0-4	9	3	L
01/09	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-1	2-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlton vs Bolton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlton win (42%). Probabilities: Charlton 42%, draw 27%, Bolton 31%.

How many goals are expected in Charlton vs Bolton?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Charlton 1.65 · Bolton 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bolton?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.