Football · England Championship · 04/11, 20:45

Prediction: Wrexham vs Middlesbrough

Team pages: Wrexham · Middlesbrough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Wrexham1.12

Middlesbrough1.88

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Wrexham Draw Middlesbrough

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wrexham 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDLWLL

Middlesbrough 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWWDWW

Head-to-head

Wrexham 0–2–1 Middlesbrough (3 last)

Middlesbrough1-0Wrexham
Wrexham2-2Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough1-1Wrexham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wrexham 1477 · Middlesbrough 1582

	Wrexham	Draw	Middlesbrough
Our model	22%	25%	54%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middlesbrough (rating 1477 vs 1582).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wrexham	Middlesbrough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	3.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.00

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.37
X	3.75 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.15 ★
2	1.85 → 1.75▼	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 5.2% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:42 +2’	3.50	3.75	1.85
02:16 +7’	3.60▲	3.75	1.91▲
04:10 +6’	4.00▲	3.90▲	1.80▼
04:19 +59’	3.90▼	3.90	1.83▲
12:54 +3’	4.33▲	4.00▲	1.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:11 +32’	3.86	3.92	1.87
21:57 +33’	4.05▲	4.00▲	1.81▼
23:48 +32’	4.13▲	4.04▲	1.78▼
12:28 +29’	4.37▲	4.15▲	1.72▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wrexham 0–2–1 Middlesbrough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/26 England EFL Cup	Middlesbrough	1-0 HT 0-0	Wrexham
02/05/26 England Championship	Wrexham	2-2 HT 2-2	Middlesbrough
25/10/25 England Championship	Middlesbrough	1-1 HT 0-1	Wrexham

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wrexham	Middlesbrough
Burnley	1-1 D	1-1 D
Millwall	3-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Wrexham (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wrexham

WDDLWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
24/10	Blackburn England Championship	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
17/10	Preston England Championship	2-1	4-1	8	6	W
13/10	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	Derby England Championship	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
19/09	Southampton England Championship	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
11/09	West Ham England Championship	0-2	0-6	6	1	L
08/09	Burnley England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
05/09	Swansea England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
02/09	Millwall England Championship	1-0	3-0	2	3	W

Middlesbrough

DWWDDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Charlton England Championship	2-0	3-0	8	3	W
23/10	Bolton England Championship	3-1	5-1	12	1	W
17/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-2	2-2	11	3	D
13/10	Stoke England Championship	0-0	3-2	3	2	W
10/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
19/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
15/09	Millwall England Championship	0-2	2-2	14	2	D
12/09	Norwich England Championship	3-1	4-3	3	3	W
05/09	QPR England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/09	Burnley England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Middlesbrough win (54%). Probabilities: Wrexham 22%, draw 24%, Middlesbrough 54%.

How many goals are expected in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

The model expects 3 goals (Wrexham 1.12 · Middlesbrough 1.88), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.