Football · England Championship · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Birmingham vs Swansea

Team pages: Birmingham · Swansea

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Birmingham1.5

Swansea1.06

1X2

47% 28% 26%

Birmingham Draw Swansea

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Birmingham 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWDWWWLW

Swansea 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Birmingham 3–3–0 Swansea (6 last)

Swansea0-1Birmingham
Swansea1-1Birmingham
Birmingham1-0Swansea
Birmingham2-2Swansea
Swansea1-1Birmingham
Swansea3-4Birmingham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Birmingham 1555 · Swansea 1536

	Birmingham	Draw	Swansea
Our model	46%	28%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Birmingham: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Birmingham	Swansea
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +2’	1.95	3.40	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham 3–3–0 Swansea

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 England EFL Cup	Swansea	0-1 HT 0-1	Birmingham
17/01/26 England Championship	Swansea	1-1 HT 1-0	Birmingham
20/09/25 England Championship	Birmingham	1-0 HT 0-0	Swansea
13/01/24 England Championship	Birmingham	2-2 HT 1-1	Swansea
05/08/23 England Championship	Swansea	1-1 HT 0-1	Birmingham
04/02/23 England Championship	Swansea	3-4 HT 2-1	Birmingham

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Birmingham	Swansea
Lincoln City	3-1 W	2-1 W
QPR	3-0 W	0-5 L
Norwich	1-2 L	2-1 W
Southampton	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Birmingham (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Birmingham

DDLWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
24/10	Cardiff England Championship	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
17/10	QPR England Championship	1-0	3-0	0	4	W
13/10	Preston England Championship	3-0	4-0	6	3	W
10/10	West Brom England Championship	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
19/09	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-1	2-2	5	2	D
12/09	Derby England Championship	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
09/09	Norwich England Championship	0-2	1-2	7	8	L
06/09	Wolverhampton England Championship	2-2	2-2	8	3	D
01/09	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-1	3	5	D

Swansea

WDLWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Blackburn England Championship	3-0	4-0	1	1	W
24/10	QPR England Championship	0-4	0-5	8	5	L
17/10	West Ham England Championship	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
13/10	Millwall England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
10/10	Norwich England Championship	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
19/09	Lincoln City England Championship	0-1	2-1	0	3	W
12/09	Burnley England Championship	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
08/09	Southampton England Championship	0-2	1-3	3	1	L
05/09	Wrexham England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
01/09	Watford England Championship	2-0	2-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Birmingham vs Swansea?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Birmingham win (47%). Probabilities: Birmingham 47%, draw 28%, Swansea 26%.

How many goals are expected in Birmingham vs Swansea?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Birmingham 1.5 · Swansea 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Swansea?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.