Football · England Championship · 07/11, 16:00
Prediction: Cardiff vs Burnley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Cardiff1.68
Burnley1.51
1X2
Cardiff
Draw
Burnley
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Cardiff
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Burnley
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cardiff
1–1–4
Burnley
(6 last)
- Burnley1-2Cardiff
- Cardiff1-2Burnley
- Burnley5-0Cardiff
- Burnley3-0Cardiff
- Cardiff1-1Burnley
- Burnley2-0Cardiff
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cardiff 1483 · Burnley 1459
| Cardiff | Draw | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Burnley: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cardiff | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.8 | 2.5 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff 1–1–4 Burnley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/25 England EFL Cup | Burnley | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Cardiff |
| 04/03/25 England Championship | Cardiff | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Burnley |
| 17/08/24 England Championship | Burnley | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Cardiff |
| 08/05/23 England Championship | Burnley | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Cardiff |
| 01/10/22 England Championship | Cardiff | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Burnley |
| 13/04/19 England Premier League | Burnley | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Cardiff |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 13 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 23 |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 18 | 22 |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Sheff Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 18 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 18 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 24 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 23 | 15 |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 14 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 14 |
| 20 | Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 27 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cardiff | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Middlesbrough | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Watford | 5-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Charlton | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Portsmouth | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Burnley (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cardiff
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/10 | Birmingham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 13/10 | Watford England Championship |
4-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 19/09 | Charlton England Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 12/09 | Bolton England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 08/09 | Stoke England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/09 | QPR England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Burnley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 24/10 | Lincoln City England Championship |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/10 | Wolverhampton England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 13/10 | Charlton England Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 10/10 | Watford England Championship |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 19/09 | Derby England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Swansea England Championship |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 08/09 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cardiff vs Burnley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cardiff win (41%). Probabilities: Cardiff 41%, draw 26%, Burnley 34%.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff vs Burnley?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Cardiff 1.68 · Burnley 1.51), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Burnley?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.