Football · England Championship · 06/11, 21:00

Prediction: Derby vs Bolton

Team pages: Derby · Bolton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Derby1.67

Bolton1.39

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Derby Draw Bolton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Derby 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDLLDL

Bolton 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

Derby 3–1–2 Bolton (6 last)

Derby1-0Bolton
Bolton2-1Derby
Derby2-1Bolton
Bolton0-0Derby
Derby4-0Bolton
Bolton1-0Derby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derby 1430 · Bolton 1464

	Derby	Draw	Bolton
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Derby: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derby	Bolton
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	1.6 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5.7	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:53 +3’	2.15	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Derby 3–1–2 Bolton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/24 England League 1	Derby	1-0 HT 0-0	Bolton
02/09/23 England League 1	Bolton	2-1 HT 1-1	Derby
21/01/23 England League 1	Derby	2-1 HT 1-0	Bolton
27/12/22 England League 1	Bolton	0-0 HT 0-0	Derby
13/04/19 England Championship	Derby	4-0 HT 2-0	Bolton
29/09/18 England Championship	Bolton	1-0 HT 1-0	Derby

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derby	Bolton
Millwall	1-4 L	0-4 L
Sheff Utd	1-1 D	2-3 L
Stoke	0-1 L	1-2 L
West Ham	0-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Derby (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derby

WLLLDDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Millwall England Championship	0-3	1-4	5	5	L
24/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
17/10	Stoke England Championship	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
14/10	QPR England Championship	0-3	1-4	3	5	L
10/10	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/09	Burnley England Championship	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
09/09	West Brom England Championship	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
05/09	West Ham England Championship	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
01/09	Portsmouth England Championship	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

Bolton

LLLWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	2-3	11	2	L
23/10	Middlesbrough England Championship	1-3	1-5	2	1	L
17/10	Southampton England Championship	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
13/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
10/10	Stoke England Championship	0-1	1-2	10	3	L
20/09	Norwich England Championship	2-2	4-3	2	0	W
12/09	Cardiff England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
08/09	West Ham England Championship	2-2	2-3	4	2	L
05/09	Millwall England Championship	0-1	0-4	9	3	L
01/09	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-1	2-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derby vs Bolton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Derby win (43%). Probabilities: Derby 43%, draw 26%, Bolton 31%.

How many goals are expected in Derby vs Bolton?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Derby 1.67 · Bolton 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Derby vs Bolton?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.