Football · England Championship · 07/11, 13:30

Prediction: Portsmouth vs Stoke

Team pages: Portsmouth · Stoke

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Portsmouth1.16

Stoke1.05

1X2

38% 30% 32%

Portsmouth Draw Stoke

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Portsmouth 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWDWD

Stoke 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLWDW

Head-to-head

Portsmouth 2–3 Stoke (5 last)

Stoke1-3Portsmouth
Portsmouth0-1Stoke
Portsmouth3-1Stoke
Stoke6-1Portsmouth
Stoke3-0Portsmouth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portsmouth 1516 · Stoke 1545

	Portsmouth	Draw	Stoke
Our model	37%	32%	31%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Stoke: 3-0-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portsmouth	Stoke
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.9 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	3.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:01 +23’	2.45	3.20	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portsmouth 2–0–3 Stoke

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England Championship	Stoke	1-3 HT 0-1	Portsmouth
25/10/25 England Championship	Portsmouth	0-1 HT 0-0	Stoke
22/01/25 England Championship	Portsmouth	3-1 HT 2-1	Stoke
02/10/24 England Championship	Stoke	6-1 HT 3-1	Portsmouth
27/08/14 England EFL Cup	Stoke	3-0 HT 1-0	Portsmouth

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portsmouth	Stoke
Norwich	1-0 W	1-0 W
Sheff Utd	3-2 W	2-1 W
Charlton	0-0 D	4-0 W
Cardiff	2-0 W	1-1 D
Derby	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Stoke (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portsmouth

LWDDLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Burnley England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
24/10	Millwall England Championship	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
17/10	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
14/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	3-2	10	6	W
11/10	Southampton England Championship	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Blackburn England Championship	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
12/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
01/09	Derby England Championship	0-1	0-2	11	3	L

Stoke

WWDWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Preston England Championship	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
24/10	Bristol City England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
17/10	Derby England Championship	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
13/10	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	2-3	4	2	L
10/10	Bolton England Championship	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
19/09	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	2-1	8	8	W
12/09	Watford England Championship	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
08/09	Cardiff England Championship	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	Charlton England Championship	4-0	4-0	5	5	W
01/09	Norwich England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portsmouth vs Stoke?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portsmouth win (38%). Probabilities: Portsmouth 38%, draw 30%, Stoke 32%.

How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Stoke?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Portsmouth 1.16 · Stoke 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Stoke?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.