Football · England Championship · 07/11, 13:30

Prediction: Wrexham vs Wolverhampton

Team pages: Wrexham · Wolverhampton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Wrexham1.13

Wolverhampton1.35

1X2

31% 28% 41%

Wrexham Draw Wolverhampton

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Wrexham 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDLWLL

Wolverhampton 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLWDWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wrexham 1477 · Wolverhampton 1514

	Wrexham	Draw	Wolverhampton
Our model	30%	30%	40%
Market	32%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wrexham	Wolverhampton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	3.4 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +3’	2.90	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
3	Wolverhampton	13	7	3	3	23	16	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
7	Stoke	13	7	2	4	20	16	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	20
10	Sheff Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	15
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14	23	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wrexham	Wolverhampton
Sheff Utd	0-1 L	1-0 W
West Brom	1-2 L	1-0 W
West Ham	0-6 L	2-4 L
Burnley	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wolverhampton (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wrexham

WDDLWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
24/10	Blackburn England Championship	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
17/10	Preston England Championship	2-1	4-1	8	6	W
13/10	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	Derby England Championship	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
19/09	Southampton England Championship	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
11/09	West Ham England Championship	0-2	0-6	6	1	L
08/09	Burnley England Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
05/09	Swansea England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
02/09	Millwall England Championship	1-0	3-0	2	3	W

Wolverhampton

LDWWLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Cardiff England Championship	2-0	3-0	3	6	W
24/10	Watford England Championship	1-0	1-0	14	7	W
20/10	Portsmouth England Championship	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
16/10	Burnley England Championship	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
13/10	Bolton England Championship	0-1	1-3	9	5	L
10/10	Middlesbrough England Championship	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
20/09	West Brom England Championship	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
13/09	Sheff Utd England Championship	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
06/09	Birmingham England Championship	2-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/09	West Ham England Championship	1-2	2-4	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wrexham vs Wolverhampton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wolverhampton win (41%). Probabilities: Wrexham 31%, draw 28%, Wolverhampton 41%.

How many goals are expected in Wrexham vs Wolverhampton?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Wrexham 1.13 · Wolverhampton 1.35), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Wolverhampton?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.