Football · England League 2 · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Bristol Rovers vs Newport County
Team pages: Bristol Rovers · Newport County
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Bristol Rovers2.15
Newport County1.04
1X2
Bristol Rovers
Draw
Newport County
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bristol Rovers
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Newport County
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bristol Rovers
4–2
Newport County
(6 last)
- Bristol Rovers3-0Newport County
- Newport County2-3Bristol Rovers
- Newport County0-1Bristol Rovers
- Newport County1-0Bristol Rovers
- Bristol Rovers1-3Newport County
- Newport County1-4Bristol Rovers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bristol Rovers 1538 · Newport County 1495
| Bristol Rovers | Draw | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bristol Rovers (rating 1538 vs 1495).
- H2H favours Bristol Rovers: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bristol Rovers | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.3 | 1.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.1 | 2.7 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bristol Rovers 4–0–2 Newport County
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 England League 2 | Bristol Rovers | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Newport County |
| 06/09/25 England League 2 | Newport County | 2-3 HT 0-0 | Bristol Rovers |
| 14/11/23 England EFL Trophy | Newport County | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Bristol Rovers |
| 05/03/22 England League 2 | Newport County | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Bristol Rovers |
| 23/10/21 England League 2 | Bristol Rovers | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Newport County |
| 19/03/16 England League 2 | Newport County | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Bristol Rovers |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newport County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Walsall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Barnet | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Oldham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Tranmere | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | York | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Cheltenham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Crewe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Fleetwood Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Accrington Stanley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Colchester | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Northampton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Swindon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Rotherham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Chesterfield | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Exeter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Salford City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 | Port Vale | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Shrewsbury | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 | Gillingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bristol Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | York England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Peterborough England EFL Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Portsmouth UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 14/07 | Leicester Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Salisbury FC Club Friendly List |
2-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 07/07 | Weston Super Mare UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Notts County England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
Newport County
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Rochdale England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | AFC Wimbledon England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 04/08 | Roma Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 28/07 | Reading UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 11/07 | Gloucester UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/07 | Newport City FC UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Bristol Manor Farm Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Barrow England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bristol Rovers vs Newport County?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bristol Rovers win (61%). Probabilities: Bristol Rovers 61%, draw 23%, Newport County 16%.
How many goals are expected in Bristol Rovers vs Newport County?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Bristol Rovers 2.15 · Newport County 1.04), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Bristol Rovers vs Newport County?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.