Football · England League 2 · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers

Team pages: Crawley Town · Bristol Rovers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Crawley Town1.25

Bristol Rovers1.39

1X2

33% 28% 39%

Crawley Town Draw Bristol Rovers

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Crawley Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDDDLW

Bristol Rovers 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Crawley Town 4–1–1 Bristol Rovers (6 last)

Bristol Rovers3-1Crawley Town
Crawley Town4-0Bristol Rovers
Crawley Town1-0Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers0-0Crawley Town
Crawley Town2-1Bristol Rovers
Crawley Town1-0Bristol Rovers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crawley Town 1491 · Bristol Rovers 1552

	Crawley Town	Draw	Bristol Rovers
Our model	32%	29%	39%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bristol Rovers (rating 1491 vs 1552).
H2H favours Crawley Town: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crawley Town	Bristol Rovers
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	2.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	1.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.5	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.30

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 3.45 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:46 +1’	2.75	3.30	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:46 +2’	3.45	3.30	2.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Crawley Town 4–1–1 Bristol Rovers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England League 2	Bristol Rovers	3-1 HT 2-0	Crawley Town
25/10/25 England League 2	Crawley Town	4-0 HT 1-0	Bristol Rovers
22/03/25 England League 1	Crawley Town	1-0 HT 1-0	Bristol Rovers
16/11/24 England League 1	Bristol Rovers	0-0 HT 0-0	Crawley Town
05/12/23 England EFL Trophy	Crawley Town	2-1 HT 0-1	Bristol Rovers
09/08/22 England EFL Cup	Crawley Town	1-0 HT 0-0	Bristol Rovers

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barnet	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Crewe	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
3	Walsall	2	1	1	0	3	0	4
4	Tranmere	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	York	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	Colchester	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
7	Swindon	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Fleetwood Town	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Grimsby	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
10	Bristol Rovers	2	1	0	1	7	6	3
11	Newport County	2	1	0	1	6	5	3
12	Oldham	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
13	Exeter	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
14	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
15	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
16	Chesterfield	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
17	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
18	Northampton	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
19	Accrington Stanley	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
20	Port Vale	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
21	Gillingham	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
22	Salford City	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
23	Rochdale	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
23	Shrewsbury	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crawley Town	Bristol Rovers
Accrington Stanley	3-3 D	2-0 W
Newport County	2-0 W	5-3 W
Gillingham	2-0 W	2-1 W
Fleetwood Town	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bristol Rovers (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crawley Town

LWWLLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
15/08	Crewe England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
02/05	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
25/04	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	3-3	3	2	D
18/04	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
11/04	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-2	1-3	2	2	L
06/04	Grimsby England League 2	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
03/04	Newport County England League 2	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
28/03	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
21/03	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	0-1	10	1	L

Bristol Rovers

WWWWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Newport County England League 2	1-1	5-3	11	3	W
15/08	York England League 2	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/05	Notts County England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/04	Cheltenham England League 2	2-0	4-0	1	6	W
18/04	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	2-1	2	7	W
11/04	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
06/04	Harrogate Town England League 2	0-1	3-2	4	1	W
03/04	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
28/03	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
21/03	Gillingham England League 2	0-1	2-1	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bristol Rovers win (39%). Probabilities: Crawley Town 33%, draw 28%, Bristol Rovers 39%.

How many goals are expected in Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Crawley Town 1.25 · Bristol Rovers 1.39), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.