Football · England League 2 · 29/08, 16:00
Prediction: Oldham vs Swindon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
Oldham1.7
Swindon1.4
1X2
Oldham
Draw
Swindon
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Oldham
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Swindon
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Oldham
0–1–5
Swindon
(6 last)
- Swindon3-0Oldham
- Oldham1-2Swindon
- Swindon1-0Oldham
- Oldham1-3Swindon
- Swindon2-0Oldham
- Oldham2-2Swindon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Oldham 1445 · Swindon 1502
| Oldham | Draw | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swindon (rating 1445 vs 1502).
- H2H favours Swindon: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Oldham | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.2 | 1.5 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Oldham 0–1–5 Swindon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 England League 2 | Swindon | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Oldham |
| 16/08/25 England League 2 | Oldham | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Swindon |
| 12/03/22 England League 2 | Swindon | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Oldham |
| 30/10/21 England League 2 | Oldham | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Swindon |
| 14/12/19 England League 2 | Swindon | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Oldham |
| 13/04/19 England League 2 | Oldham | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Swindon |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Crewe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Walsall | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Tranmere | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Colchester | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Swindon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Fleetwood Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Oldham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Exeter | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Cheltenham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Crawley Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Chesterfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 19 | Accrington Stanley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 22 | Salford City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 | Shrewsbury | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Oldham | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Accrington Stanley | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Oldham (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oldham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Colchester England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Newport County England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/04 | Barrow England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 03/04 | Colchester England League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Swindon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 10/04 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 06/04 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/04 | Cambridge Utd England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 28/03 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 21/03 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oldham vs Swindon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Oldham win (43%). Probabilities: Oldham 43%, draw 27%, Swindon 30%.
How many goals are expected in Oldham vs Swindon?
The model expects 3.1 goals (Oldham 1.7 · Swindon 1.4), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Swindon?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.