Football · England League 2 · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Exeter vs Accrington Stanley
Team pages: Exeter · Accrington Stanley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Exeter1.47
Accrington Stanley0.99
1X2
Exeter
Draw
Accrington Stanley
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Exeter
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Accrington Stanley
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Exeter
3–2–1
Accrington Stanley
(6 last)
- Exeter5-0Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley0-0Exeter
- Accrington Stanley1-1Exeter
- Exeter2-0Accrington Stanley
- Exeter0-2Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley1-2Exeter
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Exeter 1469 · Accrington Stanley 1509
| Exeter | Draw | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Accrington Stanley (rating 1469 vs 1509).
- H2H favours Exeter: 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Exeter | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.8 | 2.6 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 0.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Exeter 3–2–1 Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/23 England League 1 | Exeter | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Accrington Stanley |
| 27/08/22 England League 1 | Accrington Stanley | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Exeter |
| 14/04/18 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Exeter |
| 25/11/17 England League 2 | Exeter | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Accrington Stanley |
| 11/03/17 England League 2 | Exeter | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Accrington Stanley |
| 20/08/16 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Exeter |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newport County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Walsall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Barnet | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Oldham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Tranmere | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | York | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Cheltenham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Crewe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Fleetwood Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Accrington Stanley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Colchester | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Northampton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Swindon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Rotherham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Chesterfield | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Exeter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Salford City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 | Port Vale | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Shrewsbury | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 | Gillingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Exeter
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 10/08 | Plymouth England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Bristol City UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 31/07 | Torquay UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Weston Super Mare UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Truro City UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Stockport England League 1 |
1-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 11/04 | Plymouth England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Colchester England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 08/08 | Crewe England EFL Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Sheff Wed UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 28/07 | Bury UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Chorley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Bradford UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Blackburn UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Exeter vs Accrington Stanley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Exeter win (47%). Probabilities: Exeter 47%, draw 28%, Accrington Stanley 24%.
How many goals are expected in Exeter vs Accrington Stanley?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Exeter 1.47 · Accrington Stanley 0.99), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Exeter vs Accrington Stanley?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.