Football · England League 2 · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Swindon vs Cheltenham
Team pages: Swindon · Cheltenham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Swindon1.86
Cheltenham1.08
1X2
Swindon
Draw
Cheltenham
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Swindon
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Cheltenham
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swindon
2–2–2
Cheltenham
(6 last)
- Cheltenham0-2Swindon
- Swindon0-1Cheltenham
- Swindon3-3Cheltenham
- Cheltenham2-3Swindon
- Swindon0-1Cheltenham
- Cheltenham1-1Swindon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swindon 1486 · Cheltenham 1478
| Swindon | Draw | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swindon | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.6 | 2.7 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.6 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swindon 2–2–2 Cheltenham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/25 England League 2 | Cheltenham | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Swindon |
| 09/12/25 England League 2 | Swindon | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cheltenham |
| 15/03/25 England League 2 | Swindon | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Cheltenham |
| 12/10/24 England League 2 | Cheltenham | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Swindon |
| 19/11/19 England FA Cup | Swindon | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cheltenham |
| 09/11/19 England FA Cup | Cheltenham | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Swindon |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newport County | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Walsall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Barnet | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Oldham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Tranmere | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | York | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Cheltenham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Crewe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Fleetwood Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Accrington Stanley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Colchester | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Northampton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Swindon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Rotherham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Chesterfield | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Exeter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Salford City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 | Port Vale | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Shrewsbury | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 | Gillingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swindon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 08/08 | Cardiff England EFL Cup |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 28/07 | Leyton Orient UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Bristol City UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Crystal Palace Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Chippenham Town UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Swindon Supermarine UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
Cheltenham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Charlton England EFL Cup |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Milton Keynes Dons UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Evesham United UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 21/04 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/04 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swindon vs Cheltenham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Swindon win (54%). Probabilities: Swindon 54%, draw 25%, Cheltenham 21%.
How many goals are expected in Swindon vs Cheltenham?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Swindon 1.86 · Cheltenham 1.08), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Swindon vs Cheltenham?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.