Football · England League 2 · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Swindon vs Colchester

Team pages: Swindon · Colchester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Swindon1.36

Colchester1.15

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Swindon Draw Colchester

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Swindon 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLLDWL

Colchester 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWDWW

Head-to-head

Swindon 1–3–2 Colchester (6 last)

Colchester3-0Swindon
Swindon0-0Colchester
Swindon3-2Colchester
Colchester4-0Swindon
Swindon1-1Colchester
Swindon2-2Colchester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Swindon 1476 · Colchester 1512

	Swindon	Draw	Colchester
Our model	40%	29%	30%
Market	41%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Colchester: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Swindon	Colchester
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.1	2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +4’	2.25	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Swindon 1–3–2 Colchester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 England League 2	Colchester	3-0 HT 0-0	Swindon
25/10/25 England League 2	Swindon	0-0 HT 0-0	Colchester
01/01/25 England League 2	Swindon	3-2 HT 1-1	Colchester
03/12/24 England League 2	Colchester	4-0 HT 4-0	Swindon
02/11/24 England FA Cup	Swindon	1-1 HT 0-0	Colchester
06/01/24 England League 2	Swindon	2-2 HT 2-1	Colchester

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barnet	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
2	Walsall	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
3	York	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
4	Colchester	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
5	Crewe	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
6	Oldham	3	2	0	1	6	2	6
7	Bristol Rovers	3	2	0	1	9	6	6
8	Tranmere	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
9	Fleetwood Town	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
9	Grimsby	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
11	Newport County	3	1	1	1	8	7	4
12	Cheltenham	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
13	Rotherham	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
14	Swindon	3	1	1	1	2	4	4
15	Exeter	3	1	0	2	3	3	3
16	Chesterfield	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
17	Crawley Town	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
18	Shrewsbury	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
19	Northampton	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
20	Port Vale	3	0	2	1	1	3	2
21	Gillingham	3	0	2	1	1	4	2
22	Accrington Stanley	3	0	1	2	4	7	1
23	Salford City	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
24	Rochdale	3	0	0	3	1	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Swindon	Colchester
Oldham	0-3 L	2-1 W
Cheltenham	2-1 W	4-1 W
Accrington Stanley	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Colchester (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Swindon

DDWLDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Oldham England League 2	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
22/08	Cheltenham England League 2	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
15/08	Northampton England League 2	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/05	Chesterfield England League 2	1-1	1-2	8	5	L
25/04	Grimsby England League 2	0-3	0-4	5	2	L
18/04	Accrington Stanley England League 2	2-1	2-2	5	1	D
10/04	Colchester England League 2	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
06/04	Walsall England League 2	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
02/04	Cambridge Utd England League 2	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
28/03	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	6	7	D

Colchester

LWWWLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Rochdale England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Oldham England League 2	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
15/08	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-2	2-2	4	1	D
02/05	Cheltenham England League 2	3-0	4-1	1	2	W
25/04	Notts County England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
18/04	Harrogate Town England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
14/04	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
10/04	Swindon England League 2	0-0	3-0	10	2	W
06/04	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
03/04	Oldham England League 2	0-1	1-3	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Swindon vs Colchester?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Swindon win (41%). Probabilities: Swindon 41%, draw 29%, Colchester 30%.

How many goals are expected in Swindon vs Colchester?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Swindon 1.36 · Colchester 1.15), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Swindon vs Colchester?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.