Football · England League 2 · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Cheltenham vs Grimsby

Team pages: Cheltenham · Grimsby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Cheltenham1.44

Grimsby1.7

1X2

31% 27% 42%

Cheltenham Draw Grimsby

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Cheltenham 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLWLD

Grimsby 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLWWDD

Head-to-head

Cheltenham 0–2–4 Grimsby (6 last)

Cheltenham0-2Grimsby
Grimsby7-1Cheltenham
Cheltenham1-1Grimsby
Grimsby3-2Cheltenham
Grimsby1-1Cheltenham
Cheltenham1-3Grimsby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cheltenham 1455 · Grimsby 1598

	Cheltenham	Draw	Grimsby
Our model	32%	26%	43%
Market	31%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grimsby (rating 1455 vs 1598).
H2H favours Grimsby: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cheltenham	Grimsby
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.30

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +25’	3.00	3.30	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cheltenham 0–2–4 Grimsby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England League 2	Cheltenham	0-2 HT 0-1	Grimsby
27/09/25 England League 2	Grimsby	7-1 HT 2-1	Cheltenham
01/03/25 England League 2	Cheltenham	1-1 HT 1-0	Grimsby
17/08/24 England League 2	Grimsby	3-2 HT 1-0	Cheltenham
05/04/21 England League 2	Grimsby	1-1 HT 1-1	Cheltenham
13/10/20 England League 2	Cheltenham	1-3 HT 1-2	Grimsby

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barnet	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
2	Walsall	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
3	York	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
4	Colchester	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
5	Crewe	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
6	Oldham	3	2	0	1	6	2	6
7	Bristol Rovers	3	2	0	1	9	6	6
8	Tranmere	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
9	Fleetwood Town	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
9	Grimsby	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
11	Newport County	3	1	1	1	8	7	4
12	Cheltenham	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
13	Rotherham	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
14	Swindon	3	1	1	1	2	4	4
15	Exeter	3	1	0	2	3	3	3
16	Chesterfield	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
17	Crawley Town	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
18	Shrewsbury	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
19	Northampton	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
20	Port Vale	3	0	2	1	1	3	2
21	Gillingham	3	0	2	1	1	4	2
22	Accrington Stanley	3	0	1	2	4	7	1
23	Salford City	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
24	Rochdale	3	0	0	3	1	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cheltenham	Grimsby
Swindon	1-2 L	4-0 W
Tranmere	1-3 L	1-1 D
Gillingham	2-1 W	4-1 W
Walsall	4-0 W	0-0 D
Cambridge Utd	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Grimsby (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cheltenham

DWWWLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Barnet England League 2	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Swindon England League 2	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
15/08	Rotherham England League 2	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
02/05	Colchester England League 2	0-3	1-4	9	2	L
25/04	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-2	0-4	7	6	L
21/04	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	1-3	4	1	L
18/04	Newport County England League 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
14/04	Gillingham England League 2	0-1	2-1	8	1	W
11/04	Walsall England League 2	0-0	4-0	5	3	W
06/04	Cambridge Utd England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D

Grimsby

LWWWDLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
22/08	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Exeter England League 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/05	Salford City England League 2	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
10/05	Salford City England League 2	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/05	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
25/04	Swindon England League 2	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
21/04	Cambridge Utd England League 2	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
18/04	Gillingham England League 2	1-0	4-1	3	3	W
14/04	Chesterfield England League 2	1-2	1-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cheltenham vs Grimsby?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Grimsby win (42%). Probabilities: Cheltenham 31%, draw 27%, Grimsby 42%.

How many goals are expected in Cheltenham vs Grimsby?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Cheltenham 1.44 · Grimsby 1.7), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Grimsby?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.