Football · England League 2 · 01/09, 20:45
Prediction: Accrington Stanley vs Grimsby
Team pages: Accrington Stanley · Grimsby
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
Accrington Stanley1.11
Grimsby1.56
1X2
Accrington Stanley
Draw
Grimsby
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Accrington Stanley
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Grimsby
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Accrington Stanley
2–2–2
Grimsby
(6 last)
- Grimsby1-0Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley1-1Grimsby
- Accrington Stanley3-2Grimsby
- Grimsby5-2Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley0-0Grimsby
- Grimsby0-2Accrington Stanley
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Accrington Stanley 1454 · Grimsby 1598
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grimsby (rating 1454 vs 1598).
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Accrington Stanley | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.1 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.7 | 2.2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Accrington Stanley 2–2–2 Grimsby
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 England League 2 | Grimsby | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Accrington Stanley |
| 23/08/25 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Grimsby |
| 01/01/25 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Grimsby |
| 03/12/24 England League 2 | Grimsby | 5-2 HT 4-0 | Accrington Stanley |
| 03/02/24 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Grimsby |
| 14/10/23 England League 2 | Grimsby | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Accrington Stanley |
Standings · England League 2
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Walsall | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | York | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Colchester | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Crewe | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Oldham | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Bristol Rovers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Tranmere | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Newport County | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Cheltenham | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Rotherham | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Swindon | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Exeter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Chesterfield | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 19 | Northampton | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 22 | Accrington Stanley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 23 | Salford City | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Accrington Stanley | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Exeter | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Swindon | 2-2 D | 4-0 W |
| Fleetwood Town | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Gillingham | 0-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Grimsby (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Accrington Stanley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Walsall England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Colchester England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 14/04 | Colchester England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/04 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 03/04 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Grimsby
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Exeter England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Salford City England League 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Swindon England League 2 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 21/04 | Cambridge Utd England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Gillingham England League 2 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/04 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Accrington Stanley vs Grimsby?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Grimsby win (47%). Probabilities: Accrington Stanley 26%, draw 27%, Grimsby 47%.
How many goals are expected in Accrington Stanley vs Grimsby?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Accrington Stanley 1.11 · Grimsby 1.56), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Accrington Stanley vs Grimsby?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.