Football · England League 2 · 01/09, 20:45

Prediction: Bristol Rovers vs Colchester

Team pages: Bristol Rovers · Colchester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Bristol Rovers1.56

Colchester1.01

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Bristol Rovers Draw Colchester

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bristol Rovers 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDLWW

Colchester 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWDWW

Head-to-head

Bristol Rovers 2–2–1 Colchester (5 last)

Bristol Rovers0-1Colchester
Colchester1-1Bristol Rovers
Colchester1-2Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers1-0Colchester
Colchester1-1Bristol Rovers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bristol Rovers 1559 · Colchester 1512

	Bristol Rovers	Draw	Colchester
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bristol Rovers (rating 1559 vs 1512).
H2H favours Bristol Rovers: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bristol Rovers	Colchester
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.5	2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.84
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.72 ★
2	4.00 → 3.80▼	Pinn 3.94

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:04 +7’	1.80	3.60	4.00
06:25 +19’	1.85▲	3.50▼	3.70▼
09:32 +6’	1.83▼	3.50	3.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:10	1.83	3.67	4.07
06:43 +1’	1.94▲	3.56▼	3.74▼
09:37	1.84▼	3.72▲	3.94▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bristol Rovers 2–2–1 Colchester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England League 2	Bristol Rovers	0-1 HT 0-0	Colchester
20/09/25 England League 2	Colchester	1-1 HT 0-1	Bristol Rovers
23/11/22 England EFL Trophy	Colchester	1-2 HT 0-0	Bristol Rovers
15/03/22 England League 2	Bristol Rovers	1-0 HT 0-0	Colchester
19/10/21 England League 2	Colchester	1-1 HT 0-0	Bristol Rovers

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barnet	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
2	Walsall	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
3	York	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
4	Colchester	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
5	Crewe	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
6	Oldham	3	2	0	1	6	2	6
7	Bristol Rovers	3	2	0	1	9	6	6
8	Tranmere	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
9	Fleetwood Town	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
9	Grimsby	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
11	Newport County	3	1	1	1	8	7	4
12	Cheltenham	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
13	Rotherham	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
14	Swindon	3	1	1	1	2	4	4
15	Exeter	3	1	0	2	3	3	3
16	Chesterfield	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
17	Crawley Town	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
18	Shrewsbury	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
19	Northampton	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
20	Port Vale	3	0	2	1	1	3	2
21	Gillingham	3	0	2	1	1	4	2
22	Accrington Stanley	3	0	1	2	4	7	1
23	Salford City	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
24	Rochdale	3	0	0	3	1	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bristol Rovers	Colchester
Notts County	1-1 D	0-1 L
Cheltenham	4-0 W	4-1 W
Tranmere	2-1 W	1-0 W
Harrogate Town	3-2 W	0-1 L
Accrington Stanley	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bristol Rovers (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bristol Rovers

WWWWWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
22/08	Newport County England League 2	1-1	5-3	11	3	W
15/08	York England League 2	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/05	Notts County England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/04	Cheltenham England League 2	2-0	4-0	1	6	W
18/04	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	2-1	2	7	W
11/04	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
06/04	Harrogate Town England League 2	0-1	3-2	4	1	W
03/04	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
28/03	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

Colchester

LWWWLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Rochdale England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Oldham England League 2	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
15/08	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-2	2-2	4	1	D
02/05	Cheltenham England League 2	3-0	4-1	1	2	W
25/04	Notts County England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
18/04	Harrogate Town England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
14/04	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
10/04	Swindon England League 2	0-0	3-0	10	2	W
06/04	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
03/04	Oldham England League 2	0-1	1-3	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bristol Rovers vs Colchester?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bristol Rovers win (49%). Probabilities: Bristol Rovers 49%, draw 27%, Colchester 24%.

How many goals are expected in Bristol Rovers vs Colchester?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Bristol Rovers 1.56 · Colchester 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bristol Rovers vs Colchester?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.