Football · England League 2 · 12/09, 13:30

Prediction: Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers

Team pages: Grimsby · Bristol Rovers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Grimsby1.67

Bristol Rovers1.55

1X2

39% 26% 34%

Grimsby Draw Bristol Rovers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Grimsby 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

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Bristol Rovers 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Grimsby 0–2–3 Bristol Rovers (5 last)

Bristol Rovers3-1Grimsby
Grimsby0-1Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers1-1Grimsby
Grimsby0-1Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers0-0Grimsby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grimsby 1573 · Bristol Rovers 1565

	Grimsby	Draw	Bristol Rovers
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bristol Rovers: 3-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grimsby	Bristol Rovers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	2.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	1.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.72 ★
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:47 +4’	2.35	3.40	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +459’	2.23	3.69	2.93
04:38 +25’	2.23	3.72▲	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grimsby 0–2–3 Bristol Rovers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England League 2	Bristol Rovers	3-1 HT 2-1	Grimsby
30/08/25 England League 2	Grimsby	0-1 HT 0-1	Bristol Rovers
17/05/15 England National League	Bristol Rovers	1-1 HT 1-1	Grimsby
14/02/15 England National League	Grimsby	0-1 HT 0-0	Bristol Rovers
09/08/14 England National League	Bristol Rovers	0-0 HT 0-0	Grimsby

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bristol Rovers	5	4	0	1	12	6	12
2	Swindon	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
3	Barnet	5	2	3	0	12	8	9
4	Tranmere	5	2	3	0	9	5	9
5	Walsall	5	2	3	0	8	4	9
6	Fleetwood Town	5	2	3	0	6	3	9
7	Crewe	5	2	3	0	5	3	9
8	Cheltenham	5	2	2	1	10	9	8
9	York	5	2	2	1	9	8	8
10	Oldham	5	2	1	2	7	5	7
11	Grimsby	5	1	4	0	7	6	7
12	Colchester	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
13	Gillingham	5	1	3	1	6	6	6
14	Northampton	5	1	3	1	3	3	6
15	Salford City	5	2	0	3	4	6	6
16	Exeter	5	1	2	2	4	4	5
17	Chesterfield	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
17	Rotherham	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
19	Accrington Stanley	5	1	2	2	9	11	5
20	Newport County	5	1	1	3	9	10	4
21	Crawley Town	5	1	1	3	5	8	4
22	Rochdale	5	1	0	4	5	10	3
23	Shrewsbury	5	1	0	4	2	10	3
24	Port Vale	5	0	2	3	2	7	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grimsby	Bristol Rovers
Cheltenham	2-2 D	4-0 W
Tranmere	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bristol Rovers (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grimsby

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Cheltenham England League 2	0-2	2-2	7	2	D
01/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	2-1	2-2	8	5	D
29/08	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
22/08	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Exeter England League 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/05	Salford City England League 2	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
10/05	Salford City England League 2	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/05	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
25/04	Swindon England League 2	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
21/04	Cambridge Utd England League 2	1-1	2-1	5	2	W

Bristol Rovers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
01/09	Colchester England League 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
29/08	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
22/08	Newport County England League 2	1-1	5-3	11	3	W
15/08	York England League 2	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/05	Notts County England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/04	Cheltenham England League 2	2-0	4-0	1	6	W
18/04	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	2-1	2	7	W
11/04	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
06/04	Harrogate Town England League 2	0-1	3-2	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grimsby win (39%). Probabilities: Grimsby 39%, draw 26%, Bristol Rovers 34%.

How many goals are expected in Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Grimsby 1.67 · Bristol Rovers 1.55), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.