Football · England League 2 · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: Newport County vs Fleetwood Town
Team pages: Newport County · Fleetwood Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Newport County1.24
Fleetwood Town1.41
1X2
Newport County
Draw
Fleetwood Town
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Newport County
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Fleetwood Town
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newport County
0–2–2
Fleetwood Town
(4 last)
- Fleetwood Town0-0Newport County
- Newport County0-2Fleetwood Town
- Fleetwood Town2-0Newport County
- Newport County0-0Fleetwood Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newport County 1454 · Fleetwood Town 1549
| Newport County | Draw | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fleetwood Town (rating 1454 vs 1549).
- H2H favours Fleetwood Town: 2-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newport County | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.3 | 1.8 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport County 0–2–2 Fleetwood Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 England League 2 | Fleetwood Town | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Newport County |
| 13/12/25 England League 2 | Newport County | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Fleetwood Town |
| 26/04/25 England League 2 | Fleetwood Town | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Newport County |
| 26/10/24 England League 2 | Newport County | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fleetwood Town |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Swindon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Barnet | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | Tranmere | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Walsall | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Crewe | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| 9 | York | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 10 | Oldham | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 12 | Colchester | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 13 | Gillingham | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Northampton | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 15 | Salford City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Exeter | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chesterfield | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 19 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 5 |
| 20 | Newport County | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 23 | Shrewsbury | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newport County
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 01/09 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Rochdale England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Barrow England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Harrogate Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/04 | Notts County England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
Fleetwood Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 01/09 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 29/08 | Grimsby England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 11/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 06/04 | Barnet England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-5 | 9 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newport County vs Fleetwood Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Fleetwood Town win (40%). Probabilities: Newport County 32%, draw 29%, Fleetwood Town 40%.
How many goals are expected in Newport County vs Fleetwood Town?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Newport County 1.24 · Fleetwood Town 1.41), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Fleetwood Town?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.