Football · England League 2 · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: Barnet vs Accrington Stanley
Team pages: Barnet · Accrington Stanley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.66Total
Barnet2.34
Accrington Stanley1.32
1X2
Barnet
Draw
Accrington Stanley
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Barnet
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Accrington Stanley
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barnet
2–1–3
Accrington Stanley
(6 last)
- Accrington Stanley0-1Barnet
- Barnet2-0Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley1-0Barnet
- Barnet1-1Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley4-1Barnet
- Accrington Stanley1-0Barnet
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barnet 1579 · Accrington Stanley 1464
| Barnet | Draw | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barnet (rating 1579 vs 1464).
- H2H favours Accrington Stanley: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barnet | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 7.2 | 1.3 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barnet 2–1–3 Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/26 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Barnet |
| 04/10/25 England League 2 | Barnet | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Accrington Stanley |
| 26/11/22 England FA Cup | Accrington Stanley | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Barnet |
| 17/02/18 England League 2 | Barnet | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Accrington Stanley |
| 28/10/17 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Barnet |
| 04/03/17 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Barnet |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Swindon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Barnet | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | Tranmere | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Walsall | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Crewe | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| 9 | York | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 10 | Oldham | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 12 | Colchester | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 13 | Gillingham | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Northampton | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 15 | Salford City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Exeter | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chesterfield | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 19 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 5 |
| 20 | Newport County | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 23 | Shrewsbury | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barnet | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Fleetwood Town | 5-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Barnet (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barnet
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 01/09 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Salford City England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Harrogate Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Gillingham England League 2 |
5-1 | 6-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Notts County England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Barrow England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/04 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
1-0 | 5-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Walsall England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Colchester England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 14/04 | Colchester England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barnet vs Accrington Stanley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Barnet win (59%). Probabilities: Barnet 59%, draw 23%, Accrington Stanley 19%.
How many goals are expected in Barnet vs Accrington Stanley?
The model expects 3.66 goals (Barnet 2.34 · Accrington Stanley 1.32), with a 59% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Barnet vs Accrington Stanley?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.