Football · England League 2 · 19/09, 16:00
Prediction: Accrington Stanley vs Newport County
Team pages: Accrington Stanley · Newport County
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Accrington Stanley1.84
Newport County1.39
1X2
Accrington Stanley
Draw
Newport County
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Accrington Stanley
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Newport County
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Accrington Stanley
4–2
Newport County
(6 last)
- Newport County1-4Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley0-1Newport County
- Accrington Stanley5-0Newport County
- Newport County3-1Accrington Stanley
- Newport County1-3Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley3-0Newport County
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Accrington Stanley 1464 · Newport County 1463
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Accrington Stanley: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Accrington Stanley | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.3 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.4 | 2.2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Accrington Stanley 4–0–2 Newport County
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/26 England League 2 | Newport County | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Accrington Stanley |
| 11/10/25 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Newport County |
| 11/03/25 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Newport County |
| 24/08/24 England League 2 | Newport County | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Accrington Stanley |
| 09/04/24 England League 2 | Newport County | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Accrington Stanley |
| 05/08/23 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Newport County |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Bristol Rovers | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 3 | York | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 5 | Walsall | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Fleetwood Town | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Crewe | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Swindon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 12 | Chesterfield | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 13 | Colchester | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 14 | Oldham | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Salford City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 16 | Rotherham | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| 17 | Northampton | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| 19 | Newport County | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 5 |
| 20 | Exeter | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 5 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 23 | Crawley Town | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Walsall England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Colchester England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 14/04 | Colchester England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
Newport County
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 01/09 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Rochdale England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Barrow England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Harrogate Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Accrington Stanley vs Newport County?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Accrington Stanley win (46%). Probabilities: Accrington Stanley 46%, draw 26%, Newport County 28%.
How many goals are expected in Accrington Stanley vs Newport County?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Accrington Stanley 1.84 · Newport County 1.39), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Accrington Stanley vs Newport County?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.