Football · England League 2 · 26/09, 16:00
Prediction: Swindon vs Accrington Stanley
Team pages: Swindon · Accrington Stanley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Swindon1.79
Accrington Stanley1.45
1X2
Swindon
Draw
Accrington Stanley
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Swindon
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Accrington Stanley
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swindon
0–4–2
Accrington Stanley
(6 last)
- Swindon2-2Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley4-0Swindon
- Swindon0-0Accrington Stanley
- Accrington Stanley2-2Swindon
- Accrington Stanley2-2Swindon
- Swindon1-2Accrington Stanley
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swindon 1453 · Accrington Stanley 1471
| Swindon | Draw | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Accrington Stanley: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swindon | Accrington Stanley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 1.5 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.5 | 1.4 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swindon 0–4–2 Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England League 2 | Swindon | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Accrington Stanley |
| 18/10/25 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Swindon |
| 22/03/25 England League 2 | Swindon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Accrington Stanley |
| 30/11/24 England FA Cup | Accrington Stanley | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Swindon |
| 16/11/24 England League 2 | Accrington Stanley | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Swindon |
| 12/03/24 England League 2 | Swindon | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Accrington Stanley |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 7 | York | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 11 |
| 9 | Crewe | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 12 | Salford City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 13 | Swindon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 14 | Rotherham | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 15 | Colchester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| 16 | Oldham | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 7 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| 19 | Newport County | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 6 |
| 20 | Exeter | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 6 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Swindon | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Oldham | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Grimsby | 0-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swindon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | York England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/09 | Port Vale England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
Accrington Stanley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Walsall England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Colchester England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Swindon England League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swindon vs Accrington Stanley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Swindon win (44%). Probabilities: Swindon 44%, draw 26%, Accrington Stanley 30%.
How many goals are expected in Swindon vs Accrington Stanley?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Swindon 1.79 · Accrington Stanley 1.45), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Swindon vs Accrington Stanley?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.