Football · England League 2 · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Newport County vs Grimsby

Team pages: Newport County · Grimsby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Newport County1.04

Grimsby1.5

1X2

25% 28% 47%

Newport County Draw Grimsby

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Newport County 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDLLDD

Grimsby 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWDDDDWW

Head-to-head

Newport County 0–3–3 Grimsby (6 last)

Newport County0-0Grimsby
Grimsby2-1Newport County
Grimsby1-0Newport County
Newport County0-0Grimsby
Grimsby1-0Newport County
Newport County1-1Grimsby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newport County 1456 · Grimsby 1546

	Newport County	Draw	Grimsby
Our model	25%	28%	47%
Market	26%	27%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grimsby (rating 1456 vs 1546).
H2H favours Grimsby: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newport County	Grimsby
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	2.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.25 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.68
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:02 +3’	3.60	3.40	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:46 +499’	4.25	3.68	1.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport County 0–3–3 Grimsby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England League 2	Newport County	0-0 HT 0-0	Grimsby
16/08/25 England League 2	Grimsby	2-1 HT 1-0	Newport County
22/03/25 England League 2	Grimsby	1-0 HT 0-0	Newport County
16/11/24 England League 2	Newport County	0-0 HT 0-0	Grimsby
06/04/24 England League 2	Grimsby	1-0 HT 1-0	Newport County
16/12/23 England League 2	Newport County	1-1 HT 0-0	Grimsby

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barnet	7	4	3	0	17	10	15
2	Walsall	7	3	4	0	10	4	13
3	Grimsby	7	3	4	0	11	6	13
4	Gillingham	7	3	3	1	11	6	12
5	Cheltenham	7	3	3	1	14	11	12
6	Bristol Rovers	7	4	0	3	12	11	12
7	York	7	3	2	2	13	10	11
8	Chesterfield	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
9	Crewe	7	2	5	0	7	5	11
10	Tranmere	7	2	4	1	9	7	10
11	Fleetwood Town	7	2	4	1	8	7	10
12	Salford City	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
13	Swindon	7	3	1	3	8	11	10
14	Rotherham	7	2	3	2	10	10	9
15	Colchester	7	2	3	2	8	10	9
16	Oldham	7	2	1	4	8	9	7
17	Rochdale	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
18	Shrewsbury	7	2	1	4	5	11	7
19	Newport County	7	1	3	3	10	11	6
20	Exeter	7	1	3	3	4	5	6
21	Accrington Stanley	7	1	3	3	10	13	6
22	Northampton	7	1	3	3	3	6	6
23	Port Vale	7	1	2	4	3	9	5
24	Crawley Town	7	1	1	5	6	13	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newport County	Grimsby
Accrington Stanley	0-0 D	2-2 D
Fleetwood Town	1-1 D	2-2 D
Salford City	1-2 L	2-1 W
Tranmere	2-2 D	1-1 D
Bristol Rovers	3-5 L	2-0 W
Cheltenham	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Grimsby (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newport County

LWWWLDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
12/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
05/09	Northampton England League 2	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
01/09	Salford City England League 2	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
29/08	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Bristol Rovers England League 2	1-1	3-5	1	3	L
15/08	Rochdale England League 2	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
02/05	Barrow England League 2	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
25/04	Oldham England League 2	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
18/04	Cheltenham England League 2	0-0	0-1	7	5	L

Grimsby

DLWWDDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	9	6	W
12/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	2-0	2-0	8	6	W
05/09	Cheltenham England League 2	0-2	2-2	7	2	D
01/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	2-1	2-2	8	5	D
29/08	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
22/08	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Exeter England League 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/05	Salford City England League 2	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
10/05	Salford City England League 2	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/05	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newport County vs Grimsby?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Grimsby win (47%). Probabilities: Newport County 25%, draw 28%, Grimsby 47%.

How many goals are expected in Newport County vs Grimsby?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Newport County 1.04 · Grimsby 1.5), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newport County vs Grimsby?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.