Football · England League 2 · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Bristol Rovers vs Barnet

Team pages: Bristol Rovers · Barnet

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Bristol Rovers1.71

Barnet1.52

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Bristol Rovers Draw Barnet

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Bristol Rovers 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWLLWL

Barnet 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDDWW

Head-to-head

Bristol Rovers 1–1–4 Barnet (6 last)

Bristol Rovers0-2Barnet
Barnet4-0Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers1-2Barnet
Barnet1-1Bristol Rovers
Barnet1-0Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers3-1Barnet

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bristol Rovers 1491 · Barnet 1602

	Bristol Rovers	Draw	Barnet
Our model	41%	25%	33%
Market	41%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barnet (rating 1491 vs 1602).
H2H favours Barnet: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bristol Rovers	Barnet
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	2.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.7	3.8 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.25▼	Bet365 2.25
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.52
2	2.63 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.14 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:36 +8’	2.40	3.40	2.63
10:23 +3’	2.25▼	3.40	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:47 +537’	2.17	3.52	3.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bristol Rovers 1–1–4 Barnet

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/12/25 England League 2	Bristol Rovers	0-2 HT 0-1	Barnet
09/12/25 England League 2	Barnet	4-0 HT 2-0	Bristol Rovers
21/11/18 England FA Cup	Bristol Rovers	1-2 HT 0-0	Barnet
11/11/18 England FA Cup	Barnet	1-1 HT 1-0	Bristol Rovers
09/01/16 England League 2	Barnet	1-0 HT 1-0	Bristol Rovers
22/08/15 England League 2	Bristol Rovers	3-1 HT 1-0	Barnet

Standings · England League 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	9	5	1	3	13	10	16
2	Barnet	7	4	3	0	17	10	15
3	Crewe	9	3	6	0	11	7	15
4	Cheltenham	9	4	3	2	16	14	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	5	0	4	14	14	15
6	York	8	4	2	2	16	10	14
7	Walsall	8	3	5	0	11	5	14
8	Chesterfield	9	4	2	3	15	12	14
9	Grimsby	9	3	4	2	13	10	13
10	Gillingham	9	3	4	2	11	9	13
11	Rochdale	9	4	1	4	10	11	13
12	Tranmere	9	2	5	2	12	12	11
13	Swindon	9	3	2	4	9	13	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	3	2	4	9	14	11
15	Newport County	9	2	4	3	12	12	10
16	Accrington Stanley	9	2	4	3	13	14	10
17	Rotherham	9	2	4	3	11	12	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	2	4	3	9	10	10
19	Colchester	8	2	4	2	10	12	10
20	Exeter	9	2	3	4	5	6	9
21	Oldham	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
22	Northampton	7	1	3	3	3	6	6
23	Port Vale	7	1	2	4	3	9	5
24	Crawley Town	7	1	1	5	6	13	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bristol Rovers	Barnet
Exeter	1-0 W	1-1 D
Gillingham	0-3 L	6-2 W
Notts County	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Barnet (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bristol Rovers

DLWWWWLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Crewe England League 2	0-2	1-3	5	8	L
26/09	Exeter England League 2	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
19/09	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
12/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
05/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
01/09	Colchester England League 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
29/08	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
22/08	Newport County England League 2	1-1	5-3	11	3	W
15/08	York England League 2	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/05	Notts County England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	6	D

Barnet

WWWWWDDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
12/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
05/09	Chesterfield England League 2	2-1	3-3	8	7	D
01/09	Exeter England League 2	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
29/08	Cheltenham England League 2	1-0	2-2	11	4	D
22/08	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	3-1	9	1	W
15/08	Salford City England League 2	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
02/05	Harrogate Town England League 2	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
25/04	Gillingham England League 2	5-1	6-2	9	4	W
18/04	Notts County England League 2	1-1	2-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bristol Rovers vs Barnet?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bristol Rovers win (41%). Probabilities: Bristol Rovers 41%, draw 26%, Barnet 33%.

How many goals are expected in Bristol Rovers vs Barnet?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Bristol Rovers 1.71 · Barnet 1.52), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bristol Rovers vs Barnet?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.