Football · England League 2 · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Colchester vs Exeter

Team pages: Colchester · Exeter

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Colchester1.23

Exeter0.9

1X2

44% 30% 27%

Colchester Draw Exeter

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Colchester 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLDDDL

Exeter 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLDLWW

Head-to-head

Colchester 2–4 Exeter (6 last)

Exeter2-0Colchester
Colchester3-1Exeter
Colchester1-2Exeter
Exeter6-1Colchester
Exeter2-1Colchester
Colchester1-0Exeter

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Colchester 1483 · Exeter 1508

	Colchester	Draw	Exeter
Our model	43%	32%	26%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Exeter: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Colchester	Exeter
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	0.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.71 ★
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.34

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:14 +5’	2.05	3.30	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:44 +455’	2.03	3.71	3.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Colchester 2–0–4 Exeter

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/22 England League 2	Exeter	2-0 HT 1-0	Colchester
23/11/21 England League 2	Colchester	3-1 HT 2-0	Exeter
23/02/21 England League 2	Colchester	1-2 HT 0-1	Exeter
24/11/20 England League 2	Exeter	6-1 HT 1-0	Colchester
22/06/20 England League 2	Exeter	2-1 HT 1-0	Colchester
18/06/20 England League 2	Colchester	1-0 HT 0-0	Exeter

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	15	10	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	20	11	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	12	7	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	15	10	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	17	11	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	12	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	17	14	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	16	16	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	15	17	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	13	11	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	13	12	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	13	13	12
14	Exeter	10	3	3	4	6	6	12
15	Accrington Stanley	10	2	5	3	13	14	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	10	11	11
17	Swindon	10	3	2	5	9	14	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	9	15	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	10	13	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	12	16	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	4	7	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	8	15	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Colchester	Exeter
Shrewsbury	2-2 D	1-0 W
Bristol Rovers	0-2 L	0-1 L
Accrington Stanley	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Exeter (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Colchester

WDWWLLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Newport County England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
26/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
19/09	Cheltenham England League 2	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	Crewe England League 2	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
05/09	Swindon England League 2	1-0	1-3	6	2	L
01/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
29/08	Rochdale England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Oldham England League 2	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
15/08	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-2	2-2	4	1	D
02/05	Cheltenham England League 2	3-0	4-1	1	2	W

Exeter

LWLDDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
03/10	Rotherham England League 2	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
26/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
19/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
12/09	Port Vale England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
01/09	Barnet England League 2	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
29/08	York England League 2	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
22/08	Accrington Stanley England League 2	2-0	2-0	9	5	W
15/08	Grimsby England League 2	0-1	0-1	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Colchester vs Exeter?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Colchester win (44%). Probabilities: Colchester 44%, draw 30%, Exeter 27%.

How many goals are expected in Colchester vs Exeter?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Colchester 1.23 · Exeter 0.9), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Colchester vs Exeter?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.