Football · England League 2 · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Tranmere vs Barnet

Team pages: Tranmere · Barnet

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Tranmere1.23

Barnet1.63

1X2

28% 26% 46%

Tranmere Draw Barnet

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tranmere 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLDDLD

Barnet 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDDWWW

Head-to-head

Tranmere 0–2 Barnet (2 last)

Barnet1-0Tranmere
Tranmere0-2Barnet

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tranmere 1497 · Barnet 1603

	Tranmere	Draw	Barnet
Our model	28%	27%	46%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barnet (rating 1497 vs 1603).
H2H favours Barnet: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tranmere	Barnet
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.5	3.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.50 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.59
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:16 +2’	3.30	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:42 +457’	3.50	3.59	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tranmere 0–0–2 Barnet

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/01/26 England League 2	Barnet	1-0 HT 0-0	Tranmere
11/10/25 England League 2	Tranmere	0-2 HT 0-2	Barnet

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	15	10	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	20	11	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	12	7	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	15	10	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	17	11	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	12	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	17	14	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	16	16	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	15	17	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	13	11	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	13	12	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	13	13	12
14	Exeter	10	3	3	4	6	6	12
15	Accrington Stanley	10	2	5	3	13	14	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	10	11	11
17	Swindon	10	3	2	5	9	14	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	9	15	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	10	13	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	12	16	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	4	7	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	8	15	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tranmere	Barnet
Chesterfield	2-4 L	3-3 D
Exeter	0-0 D	1-1 D
Gillingham	0-2 L	6-2 W
Shrewsbury	2-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Barnet (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tranmere

WDDDWLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
03/10	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	2-4	1	6	L
26/09	Walsall England League 2	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
19/09	Exeter England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
12/09	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
05/09	Oldham England League 2	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
01/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
29/08	Newport County England League 2	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
22/08	Port Vale England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
15/08	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W

Barnet

WWWWDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
19/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
12/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
05/09	Chesterfield England League 2	2-1	3-3	8	7	D
01/09	Exeter England League 2	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
29/08	Cheltenham England League 2	1-0	2-2	11	4	D
22/08	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	3-1	9	1	W
15/08	Salford City England League 2	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
02/05	Harrogate Town England League 2	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
25/04	Gillingham England League 2	5-1	6-2	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tranmere vs Barnet?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barnet win (46%). Probabilities: Tranmere 28%, draw 26%, Barnet 46%.

How many goals are expected in Tranmere vs Barnet?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Tranmere 1.23 · Barnet 1.63), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Barnet?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.