Football · England League 2 · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Crewe vs Rochdale
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Crewe1.56
Rochdale1.07
1X2
Crewe
Draw
Rochdale
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Crewe
4-6-0 (W-D-L)
Rochdale
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crewe
2–4–0
Rochdale
(6 last)
- Crewe1-1Rochdale
- Rochdale1-2Crewe
- Crewe1-1Rochdale
- Rochdale3-3Crewe
- Rochdale2-2Crewe
- Crewe2-0Rochdale
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crewe 1548 · Rochdale 1490
| Crewe | Draw | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crewe (rating 1548 vs 1490).
- H2H favours Crewe: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crewe | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.9 | 2.4 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crewe 2–4–0 Rochdale
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/23 England League 2 | Crewe | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Rochdale |
| 30/07/22 England League 2 | Rochdale | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Crewe |
| 24/04/21 England League 1 | Crewe | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Rochdale |
| 09/01/21 England League 1 | Rochdale | 3-3 HT 0-3 | Crewe |
| 16/02/16 England League 1 | Rochdale | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Crewe |
| 06/02/16 England League 1 | Crewe | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Rochdale |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crewe | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Shrewsbury | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Colchester | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Walsall | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Crawley Town | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Crewe (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crewe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Swindon England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 03/10 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 26/09 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | York England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 22/08 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 10 | W |
Rochdale
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/10 | Swindon England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 12/09 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/09 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 29/08 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crewe vs Rochdale?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Crewe win (48%). Probabilities: Crewe 48%, draw 27%, Rochdale 25%.
How many goals are expected in Crewe vs Rochdale?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Crewe 1.56 · Rochdale 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Rochdale?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.