Football · England League 2 · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Swindon vs Walsall
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
Swindon1.22
Walsall1.25
1X2
Swindon
Draw
Walsall
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Swindon
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Walsall
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swindon
3–3
Walsall
(6 last)
- Swindon2-1Walsall
- Walsall2-1Swindon
- Walsall0-1Swindon
- Swindon0-4Walsall
- Walsall2-1Swindon
- Swindon2-0Walsall
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swindon 1445 · Walsall 1497
| Swindon | Draw | Walsall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Walsall (rating 1445 vs 1497).
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swindon | Walsall | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.4 | 2.7 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swindon 3–0–3 Walsall
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 England League 2 | Swindon | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Walsall |
| 02/08/25 England League 2 | Walsall | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Swindon |
| 01/03/25 England League 2 | Walsall | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Swindon |
| 17/08/24 England League 2 | Swindon | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Walsall |
| 16/04/24 England League 2 | Walsall | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Swindon |
| 16/09/23 England League 2 | Swindon | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Walsall |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Swindon | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Rochdale | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Accrington Stanley | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Port Vale | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Walsall (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swindon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | York England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/09 | Port Vale England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
Walsall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 26/09 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Port Vale England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 01/09 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Gillingham England League 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Bromley England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swindon vs Walsall?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Walsall win (36%). Probabilities: Swindon 35%, draw 28%, Walsall 36%.
How many goals are expected in Swindon vs Walsall?
The model expects 2.47 goals (Swindon 1.22 · Walsall 1.25), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Swindon vs Walsall?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.