Football · England League 2 · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham

Team pages: Accrington Stanley · Gillingham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Accrington Stanley1.43

Gillingham1.32

1X2

38% 28% 33%

Accrington Stanley Draw Gillingham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Accrington Stanley 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLDDWD

Gillingham 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDWWWLDW

Head-to-head

Accrington Stanley 1–2–3 Gillingham (6 last)

Gillingham2-0Accrington Stanley
Accrington Stanley1-1Gillingham
Accrington Stanley1-1Gillingham
Gillingham1-2Accrington Stanley
Accrington Stanley1-2Gillingham
Gillingham1-0Accrington Stanley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Accrington Stanley 1474 · Gillingham 1521

	Accrington Stanley	Draw	Gillingham
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gillingham (rating 1474 vs 1521).
H2H favours Gillingham: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Accrington Stanley	Gillingham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.88 ★
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:15 +4’	2.40	3.20	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:49 +91’	2.20	3.80	2.88
12:18 +88’	2.23▲	3.80	2.85▼
15:40 +25’	2.37▲	3.88▲	2.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Accrington Stanley 1–2–3 Gillingham

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 England League 2	Gillingham	2-0 HT 1-0	Accrington Stanley
02/08/25 England League 2	Accrington Stanley	1-1 HT 0-0	Gillingham
15/03/25 England League 2	Accrington Stanley	1-1 HT 1-0	Gillingham
12/10/24 England League 2	Gillingham	1-2 HT 0-0	Accrington Stanley
13/01/24 England League 2	Accrington Stanley	1-2 HT 0-0	Gillingham
12/08/23 England League 2	Gillingham	1-0 HT 1-0	Accrington Stanley

Standings · England League 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	15	10	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	20	11	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	12	7	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	15	10	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	17	11	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	12	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	17	14	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	16	16	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	15	17	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	13	11	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	13	12	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	13	13	12
14	Exeter	10	3	3	4	6	6	12
15	Accrington Stanley	10	2	5	3	13	14	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	10	11	11
17	Swindon	10	3	2	5	9	14	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	9	15	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	10	13	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	12	16	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	4	7	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	8	15	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Accrington Stanley	Gillingham
Newport County	0-0 D	0-0 D
Walsall	2-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Accrington Stanley (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Accrington Stanley

DLLDWLDDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Oldham England League 2	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
03/10	Cheltenham England League 2	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
26/09	Swindon England League 2	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
19/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Barnet England League 2	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
05/09	Crawley Town England League 2	1-1	3-2	1	6	W
01/09	Grimsby England League 2	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
29/08	Walsall England League 2	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
22/08	Exeter England League 2	0-2	0-2	1	5	L
15/08	Colchester England League 2	2-1	2-2	9	1	D

Gillingham

LDDDWWWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Rotherham England League 2	1-1	4-1	2	5	W
03/10	Newport County England League 2	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
26/09	York England League 2	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
19/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-0	3-0	1	3	W
12/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
05/09	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
01/09	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
29/08	Northampton England League 2	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
15/08	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-3	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Accrington Stanley win (38%). Probabilities: Accrington Stanley 38%, draw 28%, Gillingham 33%.

How many goals are expected in Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Accrington Stanley 1.43 · Gillingham 1.32), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.