Football · England League 2 · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Cheltenham vs Salford City

Team pages: Cheltenham · Salford City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Cheltenham1.23

Salford City1.92

1X2

23% 25% 52%

Cheltenham Draw Salford City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Cheltenham 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWDWDWL

Salford City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Cheltenham 3–1–2 Salford City (6 last)

Cheltenham3-2Salford City
Salford City1-1Cheltenham
Cheltenham2-1Salford City
Salford City2-0Cheltenham
Salford City2-1Cheltenham
Cheltenham3-1Salford City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cheltenham 1489 · Salford City 1507

	Cheltenham	Draw	Salford City
Our model	23%	24%	53%
Market	23%	25%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cheltenham: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cheltenham	Salford City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	2.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.70

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.94 ★
2	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:02 +42’	4.00	3.70	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:47 +477’	3.52	3.67	1.96
10:00 +27’	3.79▲	3.94▲	1.83▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cheltenham 3–1–2 Salford City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England League 2	Cheltenham	3-2 HT 0-1	Salford City
29/08/25 England League 2	Salford City	1-1 HT 0-0	Cheltenham
25/01/25 England League 2	Cheltenham	2-1 HT 1-0	Salford City
30/11/24 England FA Cup	Salford City	2-0 HT 2-0	Cheltenham
14/09/24 England League 2	Salford City	2-1 HT 0-0	Cheltenham
10/01/23 England EFL Trophy	Cheltenham	3-1 HT 1-1	Salford City

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	9	5	1	3	13	10	16
2	Barnet	7	4	3	0	17	10	15
3	Crewe	9	3	6	0	11	7	15
4	Cheltenham	9	4	3	2	16	14	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	5	0	4	14	14	15
6	York	8	4	2	2	16	10	14
7	Walsall	8	3	5	0	11	5	14
8	Chesterfield	9	4	2	3	15	12	14
9	Grimsby	9	3	4	2	13	10	13
10	Gillingham	9	3	4	2	11	9	13
11	Rochdale	9	4	1	4	10	11	13
12	Tranmere	9	2	5	2	12	12	11
13	Swindon	9	3	2	4	9	13	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	3	2	4	9	14	11
15	Newport County	9	2	4	3	12	12	10
16	Accrington Stanley	9	2	4	3	13	14	10
17	Rotherham	9	2	4	3	11	12	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	2	4	3	9	10	10
19	Colchester	8	2	4	2	10	12	10
20	Exeter	9	2	3	4	5	6	9
21	Oldham	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
22	Northampton	7	1	3	3	3	6	6
23	Port Vale	7	1	2	4	3	9	5
24	Crawley Town	7	1	1	5	6	13	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cheltenham	Salford City
Chesterfield	2-1 W	0-1 L
Barnet	2-2 D	1-3 L
Swindon	1-2 L	1-0 W
Rotherham	2-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cheltenham (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cheltenham

LWLDWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
26/09	Chesterfield England League 2	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
19/09	Colchester England League 2	0-0	1-1	9	8	D
12/09	Crawley Town England League 2	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
05/09	Grimsby England League 2	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
01/09	York England League 2	1-1	3-2	4	1	W
29/08	Barnet England League 2	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Swindon England League 2	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
15/08	Rotherham England League 2	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
02/05	Colchester England League 2	0-3	1-4	9	2	L

Salford City

LLLLWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
26/09	Oldham England League 2	2-1	4-1	5	2	W
19/09	Swindon England League 2	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
12/09	Rotherham England League 2	2-2	3-3	3	6	D
05/09	Port Vale England League 2	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
01/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
29/08	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
22/08	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/08	Barnet England League 2	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
25/05	Notts County England League 2	0-2	0-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cheltenham vs Salford City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Salford City win (52%). Probabilities: Cheltenham 23%, draw 25%, Salford City 52%.

How many goals are expected in Cheltenham vs Salford City?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Cheltenham 1.23 · Salford City 1.92), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Salford City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.