Football · England League 2 · 10/10, 16:00
Prediction: Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
Team pages: Crawley Town · Chesterfield
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Crawley Town0.92
Chesterfield1.83
1X2
Crawley Town
Draw
Chesterfield
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Crawley Town
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Chesterfield
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crawley Town
1–3–2
Chesterfield
(6 last)
- Crawley Town1-1Chesterfield
- Chesterfield2-2Crawley Town
- Chesterfield1-2Crawley Town
- Crawley Town0-2Chesterfield
- Chesterfield3-0Crawley Town
- Crawley Town1-1Chesterfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crawley Town 1424 · Chesterfield 1535
| Crawley Town | Draw | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 25% | 58% |
| Market | 18% | 23% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chesterfield (rating 1424 vs 1535).
- H2H favours Chesterfield: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crawley Town | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.4 | 2.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.4 | 4.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crawley Town 1–3–2 Chesterfield
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England League 2 | Crawley Town | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Chesterfield |
| 30/08/25 England League 2 | Chesterfield | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Crawley Town |
| 03/02/18 England League 2 | Chesterfield | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Crawley Town |
| 17/10/17 England League 2 | Crawley Town | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Chesterfield |
| 27/01/15 England League 1 | Chesterfield | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Crawley Town |
| 29/11/14 England League 1 | Crawley Town | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Chesterfield |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Crewe | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 5 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| 6 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 14 |
| 7 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 14 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 13 | Swindon | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 11 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 11 |
| 15 | Newport County | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Accrington Stanley | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 10 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| 19 | Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 20 | Exeter | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 21 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 7 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crawley Town | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Salford City | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Chesterfield (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crawley Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 01/09 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Rochdale England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 15/08 | Crewe England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 02/05 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
Chesterfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
1-0 | 4-2 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | York England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Barnet England League 2 |
1-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 01/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Rotherham England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Salford City England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | Notts County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chesterfield win (58%). Probabilities: Crawley Town 18%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 58%.
How many goals are expected in Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Crawley Town 0.92 · Chesterfield 1.83), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.