Football · England League 2 · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Newport County vs Colchester

Team pages: Newport County · Colchester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Newport County1.35

Colchester1.45

1X2

34% 28% 38%

Newport County Draw Colchester

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Newport County 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLDDWD

Colchester 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLDDD

Head-to-head

Newport County 1–1–4 Colchester (6 last)

Newport County1-2Colchester
Colchester4-1Newport County
Newport County0-2Colchester
Colchester0-0Newport County
Colchester2-1Newport County
Newport County2-1Colchester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newport County 1504 · Colchester 1498

	Newport County	Draw	Colchester
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Colchester: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newport County	Colchester
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	1.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.25

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.57 ★
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.49

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:42 +1’	2.70	3.25	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:08 +515’	2.63	3.57	2.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport County 1–1–4 Colchester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England League 2	Newport County	1-2 HT 0-0	Colchester
20/12/25 England League 2	Colchester	4-1 HT 2-0	Newport County
12/04/25 England League 2	Newport County	0-2 HT 0-0	Colchester
14/12/24 England League 2	Colchester	0-0 HT 0-0	Newport County
29/03/24 England League 2	Colchester	2-1 HT 0-1	Newport County
03/10/23 England League 2	Newport County	2-1 HT 1-1	Colchester

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	9	5	1	3	13	10	16
2	Barnet	7	4	3	0	17	10	15
3	Crewe	9	3	6	0	11	7	15
4	Cheltenham	9	4	3	2	16	14	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	5	0	4	14	14	15
6	York	8	4	2	2	16	10	14
7	Walsall	8	3	5	0	11	5	14
8	Chesterfield	9	4	2	3	15	12	14
9	Grimsby	9	3	4	2	13	10	13
10	Gillingham	9	3	4	2	11	9	13
11	Rochdale	9	4	1	4	10	11	13
12	Tranmere	9	2	5	2	12	12	11
13	Swindon	9	3	2	4	9	13	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	3	2	4	9	14	11
15	Newport County	9	2	4	3	12	12	10
16	Accrington Stanley	9	2	4	3	13	14	10
17	Rotherham	9	2	4	3	11	12	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	2	4	3	9	10	10
19	Colchester	8	2	4	2	10	12	10
20	Exeter	9	2	3	4	5	6	9
21	Oldham	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
22	Northampton	7	1	3	3	3	6	6
23	Port Vale	7	1	2	4	3	9	5
24	Crawley Town	7	1	1	5	6	13	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newport County	Colchester
Accrington Stanley	0-0 D	2-2 D
Bristol Rovers	3-5 L	0-2 L
Rochdale	3-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Newport County (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newport County

WWLDLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
26/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
19/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
12/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
05/09	Northampton England League 2	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
01/09	Salford City England League 2	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
29/08	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Bristol Rovers England League 2	1-1	3-5	1	3	L
15/08	Rochdale England League 2	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
02/05	Barrow England League 2	0-1	2-1	4	3	W

Colchester

LWDWWLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
19/09	Cheltenham England League 2	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	Crewe England League 2	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
05/09	Swindon England League 2	1-0	1-3	6	2	L
01/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
29/08	Rochdale England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Oldham England League 2	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
15/08	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-2	2-2	4	1	D
02/05	Cheltenham England League 2	3-0	4-1	1	2	W
25/04	Notts County England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newport County vs Colchester?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Colchester win (38%). Probabilities: Newport County 34%, draw 28%, Colchester 38%.

How many goals are expected in Newport County vs Colchester?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Newport County 1.35 · Colchester 1.45), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newport County vs Colchester?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.