Football · England League 2 · 10/10, 13:30

Prediction: Oldham vs Accrington Stanley

Team pages: Oldham · Accrington Stanley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Oldham1.79

Accrington Stanley1.06

1X2

53% 25% 21%

Oldham Draw Accrington Stanley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Oldham 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDLLLL

Accrington Stanley 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLDWLDDW

Head-to-head

Oldham 1–2–3 Accrington Stanley (6 last)

Oldham3-0Accrington Stanley
Accrington Stanley1-0Oldham
Accrington Stanley3-1Oldham
Oldham0-0Accrington Stanley
Oldham0-3Accrington Stanley
Accrington Stanley2-2Oldham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oldham 1454 · Accrington Stanley 1485

	Oldham	Draw	Accrington Stanley
Our model	53%	25%	21%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Accrington Stanley: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oldham	Accrington Stanley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.15
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 5.03 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:04 +6’	1.73	3.60	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:47 +443’	1.59	4.15	5.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Oldham 1–2–3 Accrington Stanley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 England League 2	Oldham	3-0 HT 1-0	Accrington Stanley
29/11/25 England League 2	Accrington Stanley	1-0 HT 1-0	Oldham
05/08/25 England EFL Cup	Accrington Stanley	3-1 HT 3-0	Oldham
24/08/21 England EFL Cup	Oldham	0-0 HT 0-0	Accrington Stanley
08/10/19 England EFL Trophy	Oldham	0-3 HT 0-2	Accrington Stanley
22/07/17 Club Friendly List	Accrington Stanley	2-2 HT 1-0	Oldham

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	9	5	1	3	13	10	16
2	Barnet	7	4	3	0	17	10	15
3	Crewe	9	3	6	0	11	7	15
4	Cheltenham	9	4	3	2	16	14	15
5	Bristol Rovers	9	5	0	4	14	14	15
6	York	8	4	2	2	16	10	14
7	Walsall	8	3	5	0	11	5	14
8	Chesterfield	9	4	2	3	15	12	14
9	Grimsby	9	3	4	2	13	10	13
10	Gillingham	9	3	4	2	11	9	13
11	Rochdale	9	4	1	4	10	11	13
12	Tranmere	9	2	5	2	12	12	11
13	Swindon	9	3	2	4	9	13	11
14	Shrewsbury	9	3	2	4	9	14	11
15	Newport County	9	2	4	3	12	12	10
16	Accrington Stanley	9	2	4	3	13	14	10
17	Rotherham	9	2	4	3	11	12	10
18	Fleetwood Town	9	2	4	3	9	10	10
19	Colchester	8	2	4	2	10	12	10
20	Exeter	9	2	3	4	5	6	9
21	Oldham	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
22	Northampton	7	1	3	3	3	6	6
23	Port Vale	7	1	2	4	3	9	5
24	Crawley Town	7	1	1	5	6	13	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oldham	Accrington Stanley
Swindon	3-0 W	1-1 D
Colchester	1-2 L	2-2 D
Newport County	2-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Accrington Stanley (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oldham

LWWLWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Salford City England League 2	1-2	1-4	11	2	L
19/09	Rochdale England League 2	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
12/09	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
05/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	0-2	10	5	L
01/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
29/08	Swindon England League 2	1-0	3-0	14	3	W
22/08	Colchester England League 2	1-0	1-2	2	8	L
15/08	Port Vale England League 2	0-0	2-0	1	6	W
02/05	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
25/04	Newport County England League 2	2-1	2-3	4	5	L

Accrington Stanley

LDLLDWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Cheltenham England League 2	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
26/09	Swindon England League 2	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
19/09	Newport County England League 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Barnet England League 2	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
05/09	Crawley Town England League 2	1-1	3-2	1	6	W
01/09	Grimsby England League 2	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
29/08	Walsall England League 2	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
22/08	Exeter England League 2	0-2	0-2	1	5	L
15/08	Colchester England League 2	2-1	2-2	9	1	D
02/05	Oldham England League 2	0-1	0-3	0	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oldham vs Accrington Stanley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oldham win (53%). Probabilities: Oldham 53%, draw 25%, Accrington Stanley 21%.

How many goals are expected in Oldham vs Accrington Stanley?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Oldham 1.79 · Accrington Stanley 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Oldham vs Accrington Stanley?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.