Football · England League 2 · 10/10, 13:30
Prediction: Swindon vs Crewe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Swindon1.23
Crewe1.26
1X2
Swindon
Draw
Crewe
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Swindon
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Crewe
3-7-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Swindon
1–3–2
Crewe
(6 last)
- Swindon1-2Crewe
- Crewe0-3Swindon
- Swindon0-0Crewe
- Crewe0-0Swindon
- Crewe2-1Swindon
- Swindon2-2Crewe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Swindon 1423 · Crewe 1541
| Swindon | Draw | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crewe (rating 1423 vs 1541).
- H2H favours Crewe: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Swindon | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.6 | 2.3 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Swindon 1–3–2 Crewe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England League 2 | Swindon | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Crewe |
| 30/08/25 England League 2 | Crewe | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Swindon |
| 11/01/25 England League 2 | Swindon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Crewe |
| 24/08/24 England League 2 | Crewe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Swindon |
| 13/01/24 England League 2 | Crewe | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Swindon |
| 12/08/23 England League 2 | Swindon | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Crewe |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Crewe | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 5 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| 6 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 14 |
| 7 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 14 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 13 | Swindon | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 11 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 11 |
| 15 | Newport County | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Accrington Stanley | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 10 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| 19 | Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 20 | Exeter | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 21 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 7 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Swindon | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| York | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Colchester | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Port Vale | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Northampton | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Swindon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Rochdale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | York England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/09 | Port Vale England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Oldham England League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
Crewe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 26/09 | Rotherham England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Colchester England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | York England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Walsall England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 22/08 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Crawley Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 10 | W |
| 02/05 | Cambridge Utd England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Swindon vs Crewe?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Crewe win (37%). Probabilities: Swindon 35%, draw 28%, Crewe 37%.
How many goals are expected in Swindon vs Crewe?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Swindon 1.23 · Crewe 1.26), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Swindon vs Crewe?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.