Football · England League 2 · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: Bristol Rovers vs Swindon

Team pages: Bristol Rovers · Swindon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Bristol Rovers1.82

Swindon0.88

1X2

59% 24% 17%

Bristol Rovers Draw Swindon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bristol Rovers 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWLLL

Swindon 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLDLLD

Head-to-head

Bristol Rovers 1–2–3 Swindon (6 last)

Swindon1-1Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers0-3Swindon
Swindon4-0Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers3-0Swindon
Swindon1-1Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers1-3Swindon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bristol Rovers 1456 · Swindon 1467

	Bristol Rovers	Draw	Swindon
Our model	58%	25%	17%
Market	59%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Swindon: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bristol Rovers	Swindon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.3	1.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	2.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.90

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +5’	1.55	3.90	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bristol Rovers 1–2–3 Swindon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 England League 2	Swindon	1-1 HT 0-1	Bristol Rovers
13/12/25 England League 2	Bristol Rovers	0-3 HT 0-3	Swindon
08/10/24 England EFL Trophy	Swindon	4-0 HT 4-0	Bristol Rovers
18/10/22 England EFL Trophy	Bristol Rovers	3-0 HT 0-0	Swindon
22/01/22 England League 2	Swindon	1-1 HT 1-1	Bristol Rovers
02/10/21 England League 2	Bristol Rovers	1-3 HT 1-0	Swindon

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bristol Rovers	Swindon
Crewe	1-3 L	0-1 L
Colchester	2-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Swindon (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bristol Rovers

WWWWLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
10/10	Barnet England League 2	1-0	1-3	8	5	L
03/10	Crewe England League 2	0-2	1-3	5	8	L
26/09	Exeter England League 2	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
19/09	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
12/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
05/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
01/09	Colchester England League 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
29/08	Crawley Town England League 2	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
22/08	Newport County England League 2	1-1	5-3	–	–	W

Swindon

WLWWLLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Walsall England League 2	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
10/10	Crewe England League 2	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/10	Rochdale England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
26/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
12/09	York England League 2	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
05/09	Colchester England League 2	0-1	3-1	4	2	W
01/09	Port Vale England League 2	1-1	3-1	10	2	W
29/08	Oldham England League 2	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
22/08	Cheltenham England League 2	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bristol Rovers vs Swindon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bristol Rovers win (59%). Probabilities: Bristol Rovers 59%, draw 24%, Swindon 17%.

How many goals are expected in Bristol Rovers vs Swindon?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Bristol Rovers 1.82 · Swindon 0.88), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bristol Rovers vs Swindon?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.