Football · England League 2 · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: Cheltenham vs Newport County

Team pages: Cheltenham · Newport County

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Cheltenham1.45

Newport County1.26

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Cheltenham Draw Newport County

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cheltenham 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDWDWLLL

Newport County 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDWDWD

Head-to-head

Cheltenham 5–1 Newport County (6 last)

Cheltenham1-0Newport County
Newport County0-2Cheltenham
Newport County0-3Cheltenham
Newport County1-2Cheltenham
Cheltenham3-2Newport County
Cheltenham0-2Newport County

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cheltenham 1490 · Newport County 1500

	Cheltenham	Draw	Newport County
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cheltenham: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cheltenham	Newport County
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +9’	2.25	3.25	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cheltenham 5–0–1 Newport County

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England League 2	Cheltenham	1-0 HT 0-0	Newport County
18/10/25 England League 2	Newport County	0-2 HT 0-1	Cheltenham
22/02/25 England League 2	Newport County	0-3 HT 0-1	Cheltenham
03/09/24 England EFL Trophy	Newport County	1-2 HT 1-0	Cheltenham
10/08/24 England League 2	Cheltenham	3-2 HT 2-2	Newport County
10/10/23 England EFL Trophy	Cheltenham	0-2 HT 0-1	Newport County

Standings · England League 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cheltenham	Newport County
Salford City	0-2 L	1-2 L
Accrington Stanley	0-2 L	0-0 D
Colchester	1-1 D	1-0 W
Grimsby	2-2 D	2-1 W
York	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Newport County (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cheltenham

LDWDWDWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Oldham England League 2	1-3	1-4	5	2	L
10/10	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-2	4	10	L
03/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
26/09	Chesterfield England League 2	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
19/09	Colchester England League 2	0-0	1-1	9	8	D
12/09	Crawley Town England League 2	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
05/09	Grimsby England League 2	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
01/09	York England League 2	1-1	3-2	4	1	W
29/08	Barnet England League 2	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Swindon England League 2	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Newport County

LDLLDDWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	York England League 2	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
10/10	Colchester England League 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
03/10	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
26/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
19/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
12/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
05/09	Northampton England League 2	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
01/09	Salford City England League 2	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
29/08	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Bristol Rovers England League 2	1-1	3-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cheltenham vs Newport County?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cheltenham win (41%). Probabilities: Cheltenham 41%, draw 28%, Newport County 31%.

How many goals are expected in Cheltenham vs Newport County?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Cheltenham 1.45 · Newport County 1.26), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Newport County?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.