Football · England League 2 · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Chesterfield vs Crewe

Team pages: Chesterfield · Crewe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Chesterfield1.82

Crewe1.2

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Chesterfield Draw Crewe

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chesterfield 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWLWDL

Crewe 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

WDDDDDDWWW

Head-to-head

Chesterfield 2–1–3 Crewe (6 last)

Chesterfield2-0Crewe
Crewe3-3Chesterfield
Crewe7-1Chesterfield
Chesterfield1-3Crewe
Crewe0-5Chesterfield
Chesterfield0-2Crewe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chesterfield 1543 · Crewe 1558

	Chesterfield	Draw	Crewe
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Crewe: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chesterfield	Crewe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.9	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.80▲	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.10 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +3’	1.75	3.60	4.10
19:51 +9’	1.80▲	3.60	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chesterfield 2–1–3 Crewe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England League 2	Chesterfield	2-0 HT 1-0	Crewe
22/11/25 England League 2	Crewe	3-3 HT 1-2	Chesterfield
02/09/25 England EFL Trophy	Crewe	7-1 HT 4-1	Chesterfield
01/03/25 England League 2	Chesterfield	1-3 HT 0-2	Crewe
17/08/24 England League 2	Crewe	0-5 HT 0-4	Chesterfield
26/12/17 England League 2	Chesterfield	0-2 HT 0-2	Crewe

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chesterfield	Crewe
Port Vale	0-1 L	0-0 D
York	2-0 W	1-1 D
Rotherham	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Crewe (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chesterfield

WLDDWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Port Vale England League 2	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
10/10	Crawley Town England League 2	1-0	2-2	7	7	D
03/10	Tranmere England League 2	1-0	4-2	12	6	W
26/09	Cheltenham England League 2	0-2	1-2	11	4	L
19/09	York England League 2	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
12/09	Oldham England League 2	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
05/09	Barnet England League 2	1-2	3-3	4	7	D
01/09	Gillingham England League 2	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
29/08	Rotherham England League 2	0-1	1-2	0	3	L
22/08	Salford City England League 2	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Crewe

WDDDDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Rochdale England League 2	2-0	3-2	1	1	W
10/10	Swindon England League 2	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
03/10	Bristol Rovers England League 2	2-0	3-1	3	8	W
26/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
19/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Colchester England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
05/09	York England League 2	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
01/09	Walsall England League 2	0-1	2-2	9	2	D
29/08	Port Vale England League 2	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
22/08	Northampton England League 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chesterfield vs Crewe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chesterfield win (51%). Probabilities: Chesterfield 51%, draw 25%, Crewe 24%.

How many goals are expected in Chesterfield vs Crewe?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Chesterfield 1.82 · Crewe 1.2), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Crewe?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.