Football · England League 2 · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Crawley Town vs Tranmere

Team pages: Crawley Town · Tranmere

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Crawley Town1.16

Tranmere1.42

1X2

30% 28% 42%

Crawley Town Draw Tranmere

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Crawley Town 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Tranmere 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Crawley Town 3–3 Tranmere (6 last)

Tranmere2-0Crawley Town
Crawley Town0-2Tranmere
Tranmere1-3Crawley Town
Crawley Town3-2Tranmere
Crawley Town2-1Tranmere
Tranmere1-0Crawley Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crawley Town 1435 · Tranmere 1494

	Crawley Town	Draw	Tranmere
Our model	30%	29%	42%
Market	31%	27%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tranmere (rating 1435 vs 1494).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crawley Town	Tranmere
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +4’	3.00	3.40	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crawley Town 3–0–3 Tranmere

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England League 2	Tranmere	2-0 HT 2-0	Crawley Town
23/08/25 England League 2	Crawley Town	0-2 HT 0-0	Tranmere
23/03/24 England League 2	Tranmere	1-3 HT 1-2	Crawley Town
16/09/23 England League 2	Crawley Town	3-2 HT 0-1	Tranmere
15/04/23 England League 2	Crawley Town	2-1 HT 2-1	Tranmere
28/02/23 England League 2	Tranmere	1-0 HT 0-0	Crawley Town

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crawley Town	Tranmere
Chesterfield	2-2 D	2-4 L
Rochdale	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Crawley Town (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crawley Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Salford City England League 2	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
10/10	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	2-2	1	7	D
19/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
12/09	Cheltenham England League 2	1-2	1-3	8	6	L
05/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
01/09	Northampton England League 2	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
29/08	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
22/08	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Crewe England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
02/05	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Tranmere

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Barnet England League 2	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
10/10	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
03/10	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	2-4	1	6	L
26/09	Walsall England League 2	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
19/09	Exeter England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
12/09	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
05/09	Oldham England League 2	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
01/09	Rotherham England League 2	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
29/08	Newport County England League 2	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
22/08	Port Vale England League 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tranmere win (42%). Probabilities: Crawley Town 30%, draw 28%, Tranmere 42%.

How many goals are expected in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Crawley Town 1.16 · Tranmere 1.42), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.