Football · England League 2 · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Exeter vs Fleetwood Town

Team pages: Exeter · Fleetwood Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.86Total

Exeter0.93

Fleetwood Town0.93

1X2

34% 32% 34%

Exeter Draw Fleetwood Town

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Exeter 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLDLWWD

Fleetwood Town 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWDLLLDW

Head-to-head

Exeter 1–2–1 Fleetwood Town (4 last)

Exeter1-1Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town3-0Exeter
Fleetwood Town2-2Exeter
Exeter2-1Fleetwood Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Exeter 1517 · Fleetwood Town 1494

	Exeter	Draw	Fleetwood Town
Our model	33%	35%	33%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 1.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Exeter	Fleetwood Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.10

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +13’	2.60	3.10	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Exeter 1–2–1 Fleetwood Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/24 England League 1	Exeter	1-1 HT 1-0	Fleetwood Town
11/11/23 England League 1	Fleetwood Town	3-0 HT 3-0	Exeter
01/04/23 England League 1	Fleetwood Town	2-2 HT 2-1	Exeter
22/10/22 England League 1	Exeter	2-1 HT 1-1	Fleetwood Town

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17	11	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22	12	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15	9	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18	12	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13	7	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17	20	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15	18	15
10	Accrington Stanley	11	3	5	3	16	15	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14	13	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13	13	13
16	Exeter	11	3	4	4	6	6	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14	15	12
18	Swindon	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10	13	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5	9	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6	7	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9	17	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Exeter	Fleetwood Town
Shrewsbury	1-0 W	2-0 W
Rotherham	1-0 W	2-0 W
Walsall	0-0 D	1-1 D
Barnet	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fleetwood Town (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Exeter

WLDDLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Colchester England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
10/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
03/10	Rotherham England League 2	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
26/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
19/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
12/09	Port Vale England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Walsall England League 2	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
01/09	Barnet England League 2	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
29/08	York England League 2	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
22/08	Accrington Stanley England League 2	2-0	2-0	–	–	W

Fleetwood Town

DDDWDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Rotherham England League 2	0-0	2-0	9	8	W
10/10	Walsall England League 2	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
03/10	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/09	Rochdale England League 2	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
19/09	Barnet England League 2	1-1	1-3	6	6	L
12/09	Newport County England League 2	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
05/09	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
01/09	Oldham England League 2	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
29/08	Grimsby England League 2	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
22/08	Gillingham England League 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Exeter win (34%). Probabilities: Exeter 34%, draw 32%, Fleetwood Town 34%.

How many goals are expected in Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?

The model expects 1.86 goals (Exeter 0.93 · Fleetwood Town 0.93), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.